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Model 1.2

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Paredes v Famalicao

Paredes
1–0Full time
Famalicao

Taça de Portugal · SUN 18 OCT · Municipal das Laranjeiras

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 22:01
Paredes 1–0 Famalicao FAMALICAO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Famalicao win55%
The market said66%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.022
The market’s Brier score1.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Famalicao win at 55%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Famalicao was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 19–27–54
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Paredes v Famalicao
  4. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Famalicao win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  5. 40′We said Famalicao at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 18–39–43
  6. 40′We said Famalicao at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 57–28–15
  7. 40′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 57–28–15
  8. 40′Paredes find the net on 40′. 1–0. 1–0 · 57–28–15
  9. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Paredes 1–0 Famalicao
  10. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Famalicao win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
  11. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Paredes win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Famalicao win 15%)
  12. 43′We said Famalicao at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 58–28–14
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Paredes 1–0 Famalicao
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Paredes 1–0 Famalicao
  15. 56′We said Famalicao at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 65–26–9
  16. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Famalicao
  17. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Famalicao · On: P. Santos · Off: Garcia
  18. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Famalicao · On: Gil Dias · Off: T. Szucs
  19. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Famalicao · On: Pedro Bondo · Off: R. Beney
  20. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Famalicao win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
  21. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Paredes
  22. 69′We said Famalicao at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 74–22–4
  23. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Paredes
  24. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Paredes · On: F. Canario · Off: Erik
  25. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Paredes · On: Ruca · Off: D. Rodrigues
  26. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Famalicao · On: P. Salas · Off: T. Van de Looi
  27. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Paredes · On: J. Yuk · Off: Miguel
  28. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Paredes · On: Ze Oliveira · Off: F. Almara
  29. 95′Full time, 1–0. We called Famalicao at 55% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  30. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Famalicao
  31. FTFULL TIME Paredes 1–0 Famalicao
  32. FTParedes 1–0 Famalicao · Famalicao win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Famalicao are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Paredes 19%, draw 26%, Famalicao 55%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Paredes v FamalicaoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Paredes win19%
Draw26%
Famalicao win55%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:30

RoundRound of 64

VenueMunicipal das Laranjeiras

Line-ups

Paredes

Famalicao

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Paredes

Famalicao

8Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

Last match: 12 Oct · Primeira Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Paredes

Formation not confirmed

31 F. Matos

2 P. Araujo

3 D. P. Duarte

44 Gustavo Fernandes

13 J. Vigario

6 B. Val

8 D. Silva

10 D. Rodrigues

7 Miguel

11 F. Almara

14 Erik

Coach · Agostinho Bento

Substitutes

23 · Z. Macedo

30 · F. Canario

16 · T. Goncalves

5 · Ze Oliveira

78 · Ruca

29 · Vasco Rocha

21 · D. Veiga

26 · D. Santos Outeiro

84 · J. Yuk

Famalicao

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Zlobin

2 Garcia

3 L. Realpe

6 T. Van de Looi

7 Sorriso

14 M. De Amorim

17 R. Pinheiro

18 R. Beney

21 T. Szucs

15 V. G. Rofino

70 G. Koutsias

Coach · Carlos Carvalhal

Substitutes

28 · Pedro Bondo

9 · U. Abubakar

23 · Gil Dias

22 · Gabriel Cabral

10 · P. Santos

8 · M. Pena

33 · P. Salas

30 · V. Serafimovic

19 · P. Moreira

Our number · famalicao winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
55% The market66%
Us55%
Market66%

We make Famalicao a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Paredes v Famalicao0.81 – 1.55
The market · Famalicao win66% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 19:21
Our probability · Famalicao win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Paredes win19%13%+6
Draw26%21%+5
Famalicao win55%66%−11
Over 2.5 goals42%56%−14
Both teams to score44%50%−6
Over 1.5 goals69%77%−8
Over 3.5 goals21%34%−13
Paredes or draw45%34%+11
Paredes clean sheet21%––
Famalicao clean sheet45%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.3%
0123450 9.8 14.3 11.4 5.9 2.3 1 7.2 12.2 9.2 4.8 2 3.1 4.8 3.7 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Paredes down, Famalicao across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug

PAREDES

WW3–1 · 5–1

FAMALICAO

No matches in our record yet.