Mafra v Santa Clara

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Santa Clara win at 56%.
2. 0′KICK-OFF Mafra v Santa Clara
3. 1′Little has changed for our model: Santa Clara 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 18–27–56
4. 6′We said Santa Clara at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 5–13–82
5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Mafra 0–1 Santa Clara
6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Santa Clara win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
7. 7′Santa Clara find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–13–82
8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 4–14–83
9. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Santa Clara
10. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Mafra 1–1 Santa Clara
11. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Santa Clara win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
12. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Santa Clara win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
13. 36′A goal for Mafra on 35′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 17–37–45
14. 39′We said Santa Clara at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 17–39–44
15. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Santa Clara
16. 45′SECOND HALF Mafra 1–1 Santa Clara
17. 46′🟥 RED CARD · 46' Santa Clara
18. 48′HALF-TIME Mafra 1–1 Santa Clara
19. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Santa Clara win 40%)
20. 50′We said Santa Clara at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 16–45–39
21. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Santa Clara win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
22. 58′We said Santa Clara at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 14–51–34
23. 61′We said Santa Clara at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–2 · 2–12–86
24. 61′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–12–86
25. 61′Santa Clara score on 61′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–12–86
26. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Mafra 1–2 Santa Clara
27. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Santa Clara win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
28. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Santa Clara win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
29. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Santa Clara
30. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Santa Clara
31. 72′We said Santa Clara at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
32. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Mafra
33. 83′We said Santa Clara at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
34. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Santa Clara win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
35. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 53%. 2–2 · 14–53–33
36. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Mafra
37. 91′We said Santa Clara at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 2–94–4
38. 91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 2–94–4
39. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Mafra 2–2 Santa Clara
40. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Santa Clara win: 56% at kick-off, 4% now
41. 91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Santa Clara win 4%)
42. 92′Mafra find the net on 90′. 2–2. 2–2 · 2–95–3
43. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Santa Clara
44. 97′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 60%. 2–2 · 12–60–28
45. 103′A goal for Mafra on 102′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 78–19–3
46. 103′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Mafra likeliest at 78%. 3–2 · 78–19–3
47. 103′5 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 78–19–3
48. 103′⚽ GOAL · 102' Mafra 3–2 Santa Clara
49. FTFULL TIME Mafra 3–2 Santa Clara after extra time
50. FTMafra 2–2 Santa Clara after 90 minutes, as graded · Santa Clara win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.