Lusitânia Lourosa v Os Limianos prediction · Taça de Portugal

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Os Limianos LUSITÂNIA LOUROSA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lusitânia Lourosa win~~75%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.097

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.082

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lusitânia Lourosa win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lusitânia Lourosa was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 75% now. 0–0 · 75–16–10
1′KICK-OFF Lusitânia Lourosa v Os Limianos
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Os Limianos
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Os Limianos
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Lusitânia Lourosa win: 75% at kick-off, 65% now
34′Lusitânia Lourosa score on 34′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 89–9–2
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 Os Limianos
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Lusitânia Lourosa win: 75% at kick-off, 89% now
35′We published Lusitânia Lourosa at 75%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–2
36′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 89–9–2
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Lusitânia Lourosa
45′HALF-TIME Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 Os Limianos
46′SECOND HALF Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 Os Limianos
53′Lusitânia Lourosa find the net on 53′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Lusitânia Lourosa 2–0 Os Limianos
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Lusitânia Lourosa win: 75% at kick-off, 98% now
54′We published Lusitânia Lourosa at 75%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
77′We published Lusitânia Lourosa at 75%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′A goal for Os Limianos on 84′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 96–4–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Os Limianos
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Lusitânia Lourosa
FTFULL TIME Lusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Os Limianos
FTLusitânia Lourosa 2–1 Os Limianos · Lusitânia Lourosa win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lusitânia Lourosa are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lusitânia Lourosa 75%, draw 16%, Os Limianos 9%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Lusitânia Lourosa v Os LimianosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Lusitânia Lourosa win75%

Draw16%

Os Limianos win9%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 64

Line-ups

Lusitânia Lourosa

Os Limianos

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lusitânia Lourosa

Os Limianos

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lusitânia Lourosa

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Souza

5 Silverio

6 A. Montez

7 M. Borges

9 J. Silva

16 L. Rocha

21 Paulite

24 Ricardinho

27 Fabinho

42 Guilherme

88 M. Teixeira

Coach · Ricardo Silva

Substitutes

23 · M. Ribeiro

4 · D. Collard

10 · A. Ricardo

11 · M. Tablante

17 · J. Santos

19 · S. Mandiang

20 · D. Paulo

60 · Danny

90 · I. A. da Silva Moreira

Os Limianos

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Lekbab

3 J. Pimenta

5 D. Carvalho

9 M. Silva

10 J. Marques

11 E. Barros

20 M. Samate

23 D. A. Almeida Castro

33 L. Pimenta

42 A. Oliveira

77 F. Ferreira

Coach · Rui Carvalhal

Substitutes

4 · Vini

8 · J. Matos

88 · T. Barbosa

7 · S. Jota

19 · Gui

Our number · lusitânia lourosa winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off

75% The market78%

Us75%

~~Market~~78%

We make Lusitânia Lourosa a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lusitânia Lourosa v Os Limianos~~2.57 – 0.82

~~Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0

~~The market · Lusitânia Lourosa win~~78% · ours 75%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lusitânia Lourosa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 76%, 75% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lusitânia Lourosa win	75%	78%	−3
Draw	16%	17%	−1
Os Limianos win	9%	5%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	66%	51%	+15
Both teams to score	52%	32%	+20
Over 1.5 goals	85%	74%	+11
Over 3.5 goals	44%	31%	+13
Lusitânia Lourosa or draw	91%	95%	−4
Lusitânia Lourosa clean sheet	44%	–	–
Os Limianos clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%

0123450 3.6 2.5 1 8.4 7.3 2.9 2 11.1 9.1 3.7 3 9.5 7.8 3.2 4 6.1 5.0 2.1 5 3.2 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Lusitânia Lourosa down, Os Limianos across0–5 goals a side shown (95.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 639 leagues on one scale, from the 409,847 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 17 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Lusitânia Lourosa play in Segunda Liga, Os Limianos in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Lusitânia Lourosa are at home.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

What the model expects

2.57 goals for Lusitânia Lourosa, 0.82 for Os Limianos. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug

LUSITÂNIA LOUROSA

W3–1

OS LIMIANOS

WW4–1 · 3–0

Lusitânia Lourosa v Os Limianos

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Lusitânia Lourosa

Os Limianos

Rest & schedule

Lusitânia Lourosa

Os Limianos

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Lusitânia Lourosa

Os Limianos

Match statistics

Line-ups

Lusitânia Lourosa

Os Limianos

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug