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Model 1.2

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Louletano v Rio Ave

Louletano
0–1Full time
Rio Ave

Taça de Portugal · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Algarve

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40
Louletano 0–1 Rio Ave RIO AVE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Rio Ave win57%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.282
The market’s Brier score0.249

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rio Ave win at 57%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Rio Ave 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 18–25–57
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Louletano v Rio Ave
  4. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Rio Ave win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
  5. 40′We said Rio Ave at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 45%. 0–0 · 18–37–45
  6. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Louletano
  7. 42′We said Rio Ave at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 18–38–44
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Louletano 0–0 Rio Ave
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Louletano 0–0 Rio Ave
  10. 53′We said Rio Ave at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 16–45–39
  11. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Rio Ave win 39%)
  12. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rio Ave · On: D. Nascimento · Off: M. Sellouki
  13. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 16–46–38
  14. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Rio Ave win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
  15. 61′We said Rio Ave at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 15–51–34
  16. 67′We said Rio Ave at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 13–58–29
  17. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Rio Ave win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
  18. 73′We said Rio Ave at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 11–65–24
  19. 77′We said Rio Ave at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 9–72–19
  20. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Rio Ave win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
  21. 81′We said Rio Ave at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 7–79–14
  22. 85′We said Rio Ave at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 5–86–9
  23. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Rio Ave win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
  24. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Rio Ave
  25. 91′We said Rio Ave at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 2–93–4
  26. 93′We said Rio Ave at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–1 · 0–1–99
  27. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Louletano 0–1 Rio Ave
  28. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Rio Ave win: 57% at kick-off, 99% now
  29. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Rio Ave win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
  30. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Rio Ave win: 57% at kick-off, 99% now
  31. 95′A goal for Rio Ave on 90′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–1–99
  32. 95′0–1 at the end. Our 57% on Rio Ave comes in. 0–1 · 0–0–100
  33. FTFULL TIME Louletano 0–1 Rio Ave
  34. FTLouletano 0–1 Rio Ave · Rio Ave win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rio Ave are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Louletano 18%, draw 25%, Rio Ave 57%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Louletano v Rio AveBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Louletano win18%
Draw25%
Rio Ave win57%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueEstadio Algarve

Line-ups

Louletano

Rio Ave

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Louletano

Rio Ave

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

Last match: 11 Oct · Primeira Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Louletano

Formation not confirmed

71 Marcao

27 N. Martelo

3 T. Correia

12 Gabriel Passos

2 Carlinhos

18 D. Martins

21 M. Cruz

10 V. Goncalves

8 S. Lemes

23 Daniel Paulino

19 T. Sousa

Coach · Miguel Valenca

Substitutes

13 · J. Farrajota

6 · T. Vilela

14 · L. van der Gaag

17 · Y. Marinho

29 · R. Teixeira

65 · Dede

87 · A. Dias

90 · D. Teixeira

97 · E. Mendes

Rio Ave

Formation not confirmed

99 E. van der Gouw

5 A. Ntoi

7 Diogo Bezerra

8 Ryan Guilherme

11 J. Blesa

17 M. Vrousai

19 M. Sellouki

23 F. Petrasso

54 G. Liavas

79 M. Patricio

80 S. Clemmensen

Coach · Vasco Seabra

Substitutes

32 · Vitor Hugo

3 · S. Garcia

9 · Tamble

30 · R. Galcik

44 · T. Nikitscher

68 · Caike

70 · A. Wenck

18 · D. Spikic

90 · D. Nascimento

Our number · rio ave winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
57% The market59%
Us57%
Market59%

We make Rio Ave a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.8–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Louletano v Rio Ave0.84 – 1.68
The market · Rio Ave win59% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 16:12
Our probability · Rio Ave win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Louletano win18%17%+1
Draw25%24%+1
Rio Ave win57%59%−2
Over 2.5 goals46%54%−8
Both teams to score47%52%−5
Over 1.5 goals72%77%−5
Over 3.5 goals25%33%−8
Louletano or draw43%41%+2
Louletano clean sheet19%––
Rio Ave clean sheet43%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.1%
0123450 8.4 13.1 11.3 6.3 2.7 1 6.4 11.7 9.5 5.3 2.2 2 2.9 4.8 4.0 2.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Louletano down, Rio Ave across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug

LOULETANO

WD1–0 · 1–1

RIO AVE

No matches in our record yet.