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Model 1.2

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Florgrade v Portimonense

Florgrade
1–2Full time
Portimonense

Taça de Portugal · SAT 17 OCT · Parque Do Bucaquinho

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Florgrade 1–2 Portimonense PORTIMONENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Portimonense win52%
The market said60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.343
The market’s Brier score0.245

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Portimonense win at 52%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Portimonense was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 20–28–52
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Florgrade v Portimonense
  4. 8′Much as we predicted: Portimonense was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 20–29–51
  5. 13′We said Portimonense at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 50–27–23
  6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Florgrade 1–0 Portimonense
  7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Portimonense win: 52% at kick-off, 23% now
  8. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Florgrade win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Portimonense win 23%)
  9. 14′A goal for Florgrade on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 51–27–23
  10. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Portimonense win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
  11. 24′We said Portimonense at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 53–27–19
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 55–28–17
  13. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Florgrade 1–1 Portimonense
  14. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Portimonense win: 52% at kick-off, 44% now
  15. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Portimonense win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Florgrade win 19%)
  16. 35′Portimonense score on 34′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 19–38–43
  17. 43′We said Portimonense at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 18–42–40
  18. 45′We said Portimonense at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 18–43–39
  19. 45′SECOND HALF Florgrade 1–1 Portimonense
  20. 46′HALF-TIME Florgrade 1–1 Portimonense
  21. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Portimonense win 38%)
  22. 55′We said Portimonense at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 16–50–34
  23. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Portimonense win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
  24. 59′Portimonense find the net on 59′. 1–1 · 15–53–32
  25. 63′We said Portimonense at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 14–57–29
  26. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Portimonense win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
  27. 80′We said Portimonense at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 7–79–14
  28. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Portimonense
  29. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Portimonense win: 52% at kick-off, 11% now
  30. 84′We said Portimonense at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 5–87–9
  31. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Florgrade
  32. 91′We said Portimonense at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 2–94–4
  33. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Portimonense win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
  34. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Florgrade
  35. 94′We published Portimonense at 52%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–2 · 0–1–99
  36. 94′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–1–99
  37. 94′Portimonense find the net on 90′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
  38. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Florgrade 1–2 Portimonense
  39. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Portimonense win: 52% at kick-off, 99% now
  40. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Portimonense win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
  41. 96′Full time, 1–2. We called Portimonense at 52% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  42. FTFULL TIME Florgrade 1–2 Portimonense
  43. FTFlorgrade 1–2 Portimonense · Portimonense win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Portimonense are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Florgrade 20%, draw 28%, Portimonense 52%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Florgrade v PortimonenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Florgrade win20%
Draw28%
Portimonense win52%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueParque Do Bucaquinho

Line-ups

Florgrade

Portimonense

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Florgrade

Portimonense

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Florgrade

Formation not confirmed

36 M. Maier

7 P. Silva

12 J. E. Azevedo Nunes Almeida

21 G. Queda

2 Vieirinha

8 T. Jogo

15 J. Amorim

17 L. Lima

19 L. Ca

91 F. Fortes

9 G. Semedo

Coach · –

Portimonense

Formation not confirmed

65 Wellington Santana

2 Edney

6 S. Neves

4 Italo Cabelinho

36 Thauan Lara

8 J. D. Pancadas Casimiro

80 F. Favero

21 Y. da Rocha

9 S. Yepie Yepie

7 D. Djassi

93 Welinton Junior

Coach · Alex

Substitutes

1 · Dudu

5 · G. Tunguliiadi

79 · Paulinho

38 · Wermeson

70 · G. Aguas

73 · M. Junior

11 · Duda

88 · Jader

18 · Mamede

Our number · portimonense winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
52% The market60%
Us52%
Market60%

We make Portimonense a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Florgrade v Portimonense0.79 – 1.45
Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 AugW1 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Portimonense win60% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 14:20
Our probability · Portimonense win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Florgrade win20%16%+4
Draw28%24%+4
Portimonense win52%60%−8
Over 2.5 goals39%51%−12
Both teams to score42%50%−8
Over 1.5 goals66%75%−9
Over 3.5 goals19%31%−12
Florgrade or draw48%40%+8
Florgrade clean sheet23%––
Portimonense clean sheet45%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.1%
0123450 11.0 15.1 11.2 5.4 1 8.0 12.6 8.8 4.3 2 3.3 4.8 3.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Florgrade down, Portimonense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug

FLORGRADE

DW0–0 · 1–0

PORTIMONENSE

W1–0