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Model 1.2

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Felgueiras 1932 v Fafe

Felgueiras 1932
1–0Full time
Fafe

Taça de Portugal · SUN 18 OCT · Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
Felgueiras 1932 1–0 Fafe FELGUEIRAS 1932 WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Felgueiras 1932 win47%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.417
The market’s Brier score0.478

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Felgueiras 1932 win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Felgueiras 1932 was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Felgueiras 1932 v Fafe
  4. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Felgueiras 1932
  5. 28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Fafe
  6. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Felgueiras 1932 win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  7. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Felgueiras 1932 win 37%)
  8. 45′SECOND HALF Felgueiras 1932 0–0 Fafe
  9. 46′We said Felgueiras 1932 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–44–20
  10. 46′HALF-TIME Felgueiras 1932 0–0 Fafe
  11. 48′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Fafe
  12. 49′We said Felgueiras 1932 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–46–20
  13. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Fafe
  14. 55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Fafe
  15. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Felgueiras 1932
  16. 59′We said Felgueiras 1932 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
  17. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Felgueiras 1932 win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  18. 67′We said Felgueiras 1932 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–61–15
  19. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Felgueiras 1932
  20. 73′We said Felgueiras 1932 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
  21. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Felgueiras 1932 win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  22. 79′We said Felgueiras 1932 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–9
  23. 83′We said Felgueiras 1932 at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
  24. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Fafe
  25. 85′We published Felgueiras 1932 at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  26. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Felgueiras 1932 win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  27. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Felgueiras 1932 1–0 Fafe
  28. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Felgueiras 1932 win: 47% at kick-off, 95% now
  29. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Felgueiras 1932 win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 5%)
  30. 86′A goal for Felgueiras 1932 on 85′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 96–4–0
  31. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Felgueiras 1932 win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  32. FTFULL TIME Felgueiras 1932 1–0 Fafe
  33. FTFelgueiras 1932 1–0 Fafe · Felgueiras 1932 win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Felgueiras 1932 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Felgueiras 1932 47%, draw 29%, Fafe 24%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Felgueiras 1932 v FafeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Felgueiras 1932 win47%
Draw29%
Fafe win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueStadion Dr. Machado de Matos

Line-ups

Felgueiras 1932

Fafe

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Felgueiras 1932

Fafe

6Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Segunda Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Felgueiras 1932

Formation not confirmed

25 Felipe Scheibig

17 F. Cruz

70 B. Ouacharaf

3 J. Pinto

23 A. Freitas

15 A. Lopes

77 F. Franca

16 Beni Jetour

20 R. Ribeiro

7 M. Rivas

19 Lucas Duarte

Coach · Moreno

Substitutes

22 · S. Vivas

10 · Michel Costa

13 · Joaozinho

9 · T. Leite

87 · Samuel

Fafe

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Kudakovskiy

2 O. Ribeiro

4 L. Teixeira

6 Sequeira

7 Rafael Martins

11 Picas

13 T. Veiga

24 J. Amaral

26 J. Batista

88 K. Asamoah

90 P. Otumba

Coach · –

Substitutes

15 · Breno

35 · F. Cardoso

8 · Mimito

77 · Carlos Daniel

9 · M. Correia

Our number · felgueiras 1932 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
47% The market44%
Us47%
Market44%

We make Felgueiras 1932 a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Felgueiras 1932 v Fafe1.34 – 0.86
Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 29 AugW1 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L0
The market · Felgueiras 1932 win44% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 14:36
Our probability · Felgueiras 1932 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Felgueiras 1932 win47%44%+3
Draw29%29%0
Fafe win24%28%−4
Over 2.5 goals38%43%−5
Both teams to score43%49%−6
Over 1.5 goals65%67%−2
Over 3.5 goals18%24%−6
Felgueiras 1932 or draw76%72%+4
Felgueiras 1932 clean sheet42%––
Fafe clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%
0123450 11.5 9.2 4.1 1 14.4 13.2 5.5 2 9.9 8.5 3.7 3 4.4 3.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Felgueiras 1932 down, Fafe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.14
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored3 of 7
Last meetingsFAF 0–3 FEL · FEL 1–0 FAF · FAF 1–2 FEL · FAF 1–1 FEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 29 Aug

FELGUEIRAS 1932

W2–0

FAFE

DW0–0 · 4–0