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Fátima v Academico Viseu

Fátima
1–0Full time
Academico Viseu

Taça de Portugal · SUN 18 OCT · Estadio Papa Francisco

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
Fátima 1–0 Academico Viseu ACADEMICO VISEU WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Academico Viseu win71%
The market said67%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.360
The market’s Brier score1.263

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Academico Viseu win at 71%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Academico Viseu 71% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 10–19–71
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Fátima v Academico Viseu
  4. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Academico Viseu win: 71% at kick-off, 61% now
  5. 35′We said Academico Viseu at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 11–30–59
  6. 45′We said Academico Viseu at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 11–35–54
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Fátima 0–0 Academico Viseu
  8. 45′SECOND HALF Fátima 0–0 Academico Viseu
  9. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Fátima
  10. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Academico Viseu win: 71% at kick-off, 51% now
  11. 52′We said Academico Viseu at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 11–40–49
  12. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 10–42–47
  13. 59′We said Academico Viseu at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 10–46–44
  14. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Academico Viseu win 42%)
  15. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Academico Viseu win: 71% at kick-off, 41% now
  16. 65′We said Academico Viseu at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 9–52–39
  17. 69′We said Academico Viseu at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 9–57–34
  18. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Academico Viseu win: 71% at kick-off, 31% now
  19. 74′We said Academico Viseu at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 7–64–28
  20. 77′We said Academico Viseu at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 6–70–24
  21. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Academico Viseu
  22. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Academico Viseu win: 71% at kick-off, 21% now
  23. 80′We said Academico Viseu at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 5–75–19
  24. 82′We said Academico Viseu at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–0 · 84–15–1
  25. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Fátima 1–0 Academico Viseu
  26. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Academico Viseu win: 71% at kick-off, 1% now
  27. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Fátima win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 15%)
  28. 83′A goal for Fátima on 83′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–13–1
  29. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Fátima likeliest at 57%. 1–0 · 57–30–13
  30. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Academico Viseu
  31. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Academico Viseu
  32. 95′1–0 at the end. Our 71% on Academico Viseu misses, and the record keeps it. 1–0 · 100–0–0
  33. FTFULL TIME Fátima 1–0 Academico Viseu
  34. FTFátima 1–0 Academico Viseu · Academico Viseu win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Academico Viseu are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fátima 10%, draw 19%, Academico Viseu 71%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Fátima v Academico ViseuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fátima win10%
Draw19%
Academico Viseu win71%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueEstadio Papa Francisco

Line-ups

Fátima

Academico Viseu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fátima

Academico Viseu

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

Last match: 10 Oct · Primeira Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fátima

Formation not confirmed

24 E. Tetteh

2 F. Moura

4 J. Santos

5 B. Beato

6 Alex Silva

11 D. Goncalves

16 Rodri

17 R. Omrani

20 T. Silva

13 D. Conceicao

10 Quim Ze

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · L. J. Oliveira

12 · P. Abreu

23 · J. Escoval

– · M. Marques

19 · T. Silva

25 · D. Ferreira

8 · D. Morgado

22 · M. Montez

18 · M. Soares Santos

Academico Viseu

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Lavin

21 T. Domingos

44 R. Pereira

5 Pedro Barcelos

57 Gu Costa

6 A. Ceitil

45 A. Mestanza

18 C. Ferreira

22 N. Mortimer

77 Paulinho

10 A. Zamora

Coach · Bruno Pinheiro

Substitutes

58 · Matheus Sampaio

2 · N. Michelis

23 · H. Gambor

7 · L. Silva

8 · C. Kahraman

29 · A. Babic

33 · Andre Clovis

31 · Joao Guilherme

17 · Valery

Our number · academico viseu winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
71% The market67%
Us71%
Market67%

We make Academico Viseu a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.6–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Fátima v Academico Viseu0.62 – 2.08
The market · Academico Viseu win67% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 14:36
Our probability · Academico Viseu win The market, margin stripped

Published at 70%, 71% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Fátima win10%12%−2
Draw19%20%−1
Academico Viseu win71%67%+4
Over 2.5 goals51%54%−3
Both teams to score41%47%−6
Over 1.5 goals75%76%−1
Over 3.5 goals29%32%−3
Fátima or draw29%33%−4
Fátima clean sheet12%––
Academico Viseu clean sheet54%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 14.5%
0123450 7.0 13.7 14.5 10.1 5.2 2.21 3.9 9.0 9.0 6.3 3.3 2 2.7 2.8 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Fátima down, Academico Viseu across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 29 Aug

FÁTIMA

WW3–1 · 4–1

ACADEMICO VISEU

No matches in our record yet.