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Farense v AD Marco 09
FarenseAD Marco 09Taça de Portugal · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Farense win at 55%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Farense 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–30–15
- 1′KICK-OFF Farense v AD Marco 09
- 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Farense 1–0 AD Marco 09
- 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Farense win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
- 3′Farense score on 2′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
- 3′We said Farense at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
- 15′We said Farense at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
- 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Farense 2–0 AD Marco 09
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Farense win: 55% at kick-off, 97% now
- 16′Farense find the net on 16′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
- 30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Farense
- 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Farense
- 45′SECOND HALF Farense 2–0 AD Marco 09
- 47′HALF-TIME Farense 2–0 AD Marco 09
- 60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' AD Marco 09
- 70′We said Farense at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 70′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Farense 3–0 AD Marco 09
- 71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' AD Marco 09
- 72′A goal for Farense on 71′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Farense
- 94′3–0 at the end. Our 55% on Farense comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Farense 3–0 AD Marco 09
- FTFarense 3–0 AD Marco 09 · Farense win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassFarense are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Farense 55%, draw 30%, AD Marco 09 15%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 30%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Farense win55%AD Marco 09 win15%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundRound of 64
Match timeline
All events
FarenseMINAD Marco 09Events will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Farense
AD Marco 09
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Farense
AD Marco 09
Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda Liga
Last match: 10 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Farense
Formation not confirmed
97 F. Buntic
22 T. Herrero
5 R. Da Rocha Borges
37 G. Silva
45 Dario Miranda
10 S. Singh
29 Claudio Falcao
15 J. Nduquidi
6 Derick Poloni
7 J. Resende
9 Gabriel Barbosa
Coach · Jose de Almeida
Substitutes
1 · J. Tannander
3 · L. D'Agrella
8 · M. Menino
17 · A. Candeias
18 · Cuba
27 · Mattheus
88 · Rafinha
99 · E. Semedo
AD Marco 09
Formation not confirmed
26 Ze Couto
8 Erivaldo
4 Chicao
77 R. Barrett
82 J. Guerrero
6 F. Pacheco
18 F. Fernandes
10 L. Garro
14 P. Pedro
19 P. Ribeiro
9 Ka
Coach · Milton Mendes
Substitutes
96 · R. Rendeiro
2 · Victor Thiago
32 · R. Rego
31 · J. Young
36 · Dudu
29 · Lucas Henrique
7 · G. Lobo
17 · J. Gata
67 · Bruma
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Farense
Formation not confirmed
97 F. Buntic
22 T. Herrero
5 R. Da Rocha Borges
37 G. Silva
45 Dario Miranda
10 S. Singh
29 Claudio Falcao
15 J. Nduquidi
6 Derick Poloni
7 J. Resende
9 Gabriel Barbosa
Coach · Jose de Almeida
Substitutes
1 · J. Tannander
3 · L. D'Agrella
8 · M. Menino
17 · A. Candeias
18 · Cuba
27 · Mattheus
88 · Rafinha
99 · E. Semedo
AD Marco 09
Formation not confirmed
26 Ze Couto
8 Erivaldo
4 Chicao
77 R. Barrett
82 J. Guerrero
6 F. Pacheco
18 F. Fernandes
10 L. Garro
14 P. Pedro
19 P. Ribeiro
9 Ka
Coach · Milton Mendes
Substitutes
96 · R. Rendeiro
2 · Victor Thiago
32 · R. Rego
31 · J. Young
36 · Dudu
29 · Lucas Henrique
7 · G. Lobo
17 · J. Gata
67 · Bruma
We make Farense a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 54%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Farense win | 55% | 71% | −16 |
| Draw | 30% | 19% | +11 |
| AD Marco 09 win | 15% | 10% | +5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 57% | −30 |
| Both teams to score | 30% | 46% | −16 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55% | 79% | −24 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 36% | −25 |
| Farense or draw | 85% | 90% | −5 |
| Farense clean sheet | 59% | – | – |
| AD Marco 09 clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug
FARENSE
AD MARCO 09