Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › Taça de Portugal › Chaves v Os Marialvas

Back
Portugal flag

Chaves v Os Marialvas

Chaves
2–1Full time
Os Marialvas

Taça de Portugal · FRI 16 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Chaves

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30
Chaves 2–1 Os Marialvas CHAVES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Chaves win64%
The market said70%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.195
The market’s Brier score0.145

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Chaves win at 64%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Chaves was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–23–13
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Chaves v Os Marialvas
  4. 8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Os Marialvas
  5. 12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Os Marialvas
  6. 13′We published Chaves at 64%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
  7. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Chaves 1–0 Os Marialvas
  8. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Chaves win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
  9. 14′Chaves find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
  10. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Chaves
  11. 25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Os Marialvas
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 87–11–2
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Chaves 1–0 Os Marialvas
  14. 48′HALF-TIME Chaves 1–0 Os Marialvas
  15. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Chaves
  16. 52′We said Chaves at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–44–12
  17. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Chaves 1–1 Os Marialvas
  18. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Chaves win: 64% at kick-off, 44% now
  19. 53′A goal for Os Marialvas on 53′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 43–45–12
  20. 54′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Os Marialvas
  21. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Chaves win 41%)
  22. 59′We said Chaves at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–50–11
  23. 65′We said Chaves at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–56–10
  24. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Chaves win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
  25. 70′We published Chaves at 64%. Our model now makes it 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–1
  26. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Chaves 2–1 Os Marialvas
  27. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Chaves win: 64% at kick-off, 91% now
  28. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Chaves win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 8%)
  29. 71′Chaves score on 70′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 91–8–1
  30. 72′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 91–8–1
  31. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Chaves
  32. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Chaves win: 64% at kick-off, 94% now
  33. 81′We published Chaves at 64%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
  34. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Chaves
  35. 96′Full time, 2–1. We called Chaves at 64% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  36. FTFULL TIME Chaves 2–1 Os Marialvas
  37. FTChaves 2–1 Os Marialvas · Chaves win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chaves are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chaves 64%, draw 23%, Os Marialvas 12%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Chaves v Os MarialvasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Chaves win64%
Draw23%
Os Marialvas win12%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueEstadio Municipal de Chaves

Line-ups

Chaves

Os Marialvas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chaves

Os Marialvas

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda Liga

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chaves

Formation not confirmed

88 M. Gudzulic

3 A. Romero

14 N. Araujo

33 T. Simoes

23 Leo Alaba

19 G. Garcia

42 A. Tavares

80 M. Fofana

9 Marcos Andre

17 Roberto

7 R. Esajas

Coach · Vitor Martins

Substitutes

1 · J. Valido

2 · A. Herbert

29 · M. Tounkara

13 · I. Vazquez

11 · P. Pelagio

10 · A. Rodrigues

16 · D. Yearwood

18 · W. Tavares

27 · Armando Jr

Os Marialvas

Formation not confirmed

32 Bruno Guimaraes

3 S. Fernandes

5 J. Felix

20 A. Santos

10 J. Milagres

45 G. Batalha

6 L. Maia

8 G. Pinto

55 Paulinho

40 Y. Sonhi

7 G. Lixa

Coach · Carlos Calina

Substitutes

1 · J. A. Neto Frade

18 · D. Jessy

17 · G. Vitor

88 · F. Bolivar

19 · D. T. Mady

79 · J. Coelho

11 · L. F. Martins Pereira

9 · A. Undonque

Our number · chaves winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off
64% The market70%
Us64%
Market70%

We make Chaves a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Chaves v Os Marialvas1.77 – 0.63
Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 AugW1 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0
The market · Chaves win70% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75% 10 OCT 04:0216 OCT 19:45
Our probability · Chaves win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Chaves win64%70%−6
Draw23%21%+2
Os Marialvas win12%9%+3
Over 2.5 goals43%49%−6
Both teams to score39%39%0
Over 1.5 goals69%72%−3
Over 3.5 goals22%29%−7
Chaves or draw88%91%−3
Chaves clean sheet53%––
Os Marialvas clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.7%
0123450 9.4 5.4 1 15.7 10.5 3.2 2 14.2 9.0 2.8 3 8.4 5.3 4 3.7 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Chaves down, Os Marialvas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug

CHAVES

W3–2

OS MARIALVAS

WW4–0 · 1–0