CF Os Belenenses v Arouca

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Arouca win at 45%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Arouca 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 30–26–45
3. 1′KICK-OFF CF Os Belenenses v Arouca
4. 21′We said Arouca at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 10–18–71
5. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' CF Os Belenenses 0–1 Arouca
6. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Arouca win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
7. 22′Arouca score on 21′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–18–71
8. 29′Arouca find the net on 28′. 0–1 · 9–19–72
9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–72
10. 33′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Arouca · On: B. Mansilla · Off: A. Trezza
11. 45′SECOND HALF CF Os Belenenses 0–1 Arouca
12. 47′We said Arouca at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
13. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Arouca win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
14. 48′HALF-TIME CF Os Belenenses 0–1 Arouca
15. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' CF Os Belenenses 1–1 Arouca
16. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Arouca win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
17. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Arouca win 35%)
18. 50′CF Os Belenenses find the net on 49′. 1–1. 1–1 · 25–41–34
19. 52′We said Arouca at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 24–42–33
20. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CF Os Belenenses · On: D. Ferreira · Off: A. Afonso
21. 61′We said Arouca at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 22–49–29
22. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Arouca win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
23. 69′We said Arouca at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 18–58–24
24. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Arouca · On: F. Mayulu · Off: I. Barbero
25. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Arouca · On: G. Rukavina · Off: P. Gozalbez
26. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Arouca · On: Pedro Santos · Off: T. Fukui
27. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' CF Os Belenenses
28. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Arouca
29. 75′We said Arouca at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
30. 76′We said Arouca at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–1 · 82–16–2
31. 76′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–16–2
32. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' CF Os Belenenses 2–1 Arouca
33. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Arouca win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
34. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' CF Os Belenenses win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
35. 78′A goal for CF Os Belenenses on 76′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 84–15–2
36. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Arouca · On: D. Nandin · Off: N. Djouahra
37. 87′We said Arouca at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 6–87–7
38. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' CF Os Belenenses 2–2 Arouca
39. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was CF Os Belenenses win 6%)
40. 88′Arouca score on 87′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 5–89–6
41. 89′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 4–90–6
42. 90′We said Arouca at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–3 · 0–4–96
43. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 48%. 3–3 · 22–48–30
44. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CF Os Belenenses · On: E. Souza · Off: Chamito
45. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CF Os Belenenses · On: T. Moninhas · Off: D. Horta Leitao
46. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' CF Os Belenenses 2–3 Arouca
47. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Arouca win: 45% at kick-off, 96% now
48. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Arouca win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
49. 91′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–3–97 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
50. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' CF Os Belenenses · On: A. Valente · Off: J. Herrera
51. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Arouca win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
52. 92′Arouca ahead on 90′ through B. Mansilla. 2–3. 2–3 · 0–3–97 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
53. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' CF Os Belenenses · On: J. Oliveira · Off: T. Morgado
54. 93′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 2–95–3
55. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' CF Os Belenenses 3–3 Arouca
56. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Arouca win: 45% at kick-off, 3% now
57. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Arouca win 3%)
58. 94′A goal for CF Os Belenenses on 90′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 1–97–2
59. 96′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 54%. 3–3 · 20–54–26
60. 105′Arouca score on 105′ to make it 3–4. 3–4 · 1–13–85
61. 105′⚽ GOAL · 105' CF Os Belenenses 3–4 Arouca
62. 106′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Arouca likeliest at 86%. 3–4 · 1–13–86
63. 107′7 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–4 · 1–12–87
64. 119′🟨 YELLOW · 118' Arouca
65. FTFULL TIME CF Os Belenenses 3–4 Arouca after extra time
66. FTCF Os Belenenses 3–3 Arouca after 90 minutes, as graded · Arouca win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.