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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Taça de Portugal › Brito v Vitória de Sernache

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Brito v Vitória de Sernache

Brito
0–1Full time
Vitória de Sernache

Taça de Portugal · SUN 18 OCT · Parque de Jogos do Brito SC

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
Brito 0–1 Vitória de Sernache VITÓRIA DE SERNACHE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vitória de Sernache win36%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.622
The market’s Brier score0.493

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vitória de Sernache win at 36%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Brito v Vitória de Sernache
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Vitória de Sernache 36% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 33–31–35
  4. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Vitória de Sernache win 32%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Brito 0–0 Vitória de Sernache
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Brito 0–0 Vitória de Sernache
  7. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Vitória de Sernache win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
  8. 55′We said Vitória de Sernache at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–52–24
  9. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Vitória de Sernache
  10. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Vitória de Sernache
  11. 66′We said Vitória de Sernache at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
  12. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Vitória de Sernache win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
  13. 74′Vitória de Sernache score on 73′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–13–86
  14. 74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Brito 0–1 Vitória de Sernache
  15. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Vitória de Sernache win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
  16. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Vitória de Sernache win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
  17. 75′We said Vitória de Sernache at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–1 · 1–12–87
  18. 79′We said Vitória de Sernache at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  19. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Brito
  20. 86′We said Vitória de Sernache at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  21. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Vitória de Sernache win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
  22. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Vitória de Sernache
  23. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Brito
  24. FTFULL TIME Brito 0–1 Vitória de Sernache
  25. FTBrito 0–1 Vitória de Sernache · Vitória de Sernache win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vitória de Sernache just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Brito 33%, draw 31%, Vitória de Sernache 36%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Brito v Vitória de SernacheBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Brito win33%
Draw31%
Vitória de Sernache win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueParque de Jogos do Brito SC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brito

Vitória de Sernache

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A

Last match: 10 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vitória de sernache winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off
36% The market43%
Us36%
Market43%

We make Vitória de Sernache a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Brito v Vitória de Sernache1.02 – 1.06
Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 AugW1 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0
The market · Vitória de Sernache win43% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 14:36
Our probability · Vitória de Sernache win The market, margin stripped

Published at 34%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Brito win33%29%+4
Draw31%28%+3
Vitória de Sernache win36%43%−7
Over 2.5 goals35%50%−15
Both teams to score42%55%−13
Over 1.5 goals62%72%−10
Over 3.5 goals16%30%−14
Brito or draw64%57%+7
Brito clean sheet35%––
Vitória de Sernache clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%
0123450 12.9 12.8 7.0 2.5 1 12.3 13.9 7.2 2.5 2 6.5 6.9 3.7 3 2.2 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Brito down, Vitória de Sernache across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 30 Aug

BRITO

W5–0

VITÓRIA DE SERNACHE

WW3–0 · 2–1