AVS v Moreirense prediction · Taça de Portugal

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

AVS 1–0 Moreirense MOREIRENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Moreirense win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.686

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.778

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Moreirense win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Moreirense 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 33–27–41
1′KICK-OFF AVS v Moreirense
3′AVS find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–23–18
3′We said Moreirense at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 60–23–18
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' AVS 1–0 Moreirense
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Moreirense win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' AVS win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Moreirense win 18%)
20′We said Moreirense at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–23–14
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 64–23–12
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Moreirense win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
42′We said Moreirense at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
42′Moreirense are down to ten from 42′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 67–23–9
42′🟥 RED CARD · 42' Moreirense
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Moreirense
45′HALF-TIME AVS 1–0 Moreirense
47′SECOND HALF AVS 1–0 Moreirense
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45+1' Moreirense · On: G. Batista · Off: K. Bondoso
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' AVS
63′We said Moreirense at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' AVS · On: D. Brasido · Off: Mateus Pivo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Moreirense · On: M. Mendonca · Off: L. Santos
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Moreirense · On: Landerson · Off: L. Vonic
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Moreirense · On: Yan Maranhao · Off: N. John
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' AVS · On: G. Neiva · Off: Rodrigo Pinho
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Moreirense win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Moreirense · On: Rodri · Off: J. Veloso
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' AVS
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' AVS · On: Ponck · Off: D. Rivas
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' AVS · On: J. Meireles · Off: L. Rosic
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' AVS · On: A. Sousa · Off: Roni
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' AVS
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' AVS
FTFULL TIME AVS 1–0 Moreirense
FTAVS 1–0 Moreirense · Moreirense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Moreirense are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AVS 33%, draw 26%, Moreirense 41%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on AVS v MoreirenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

AVS win33%

Draw26%

Moreirense win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundRound of 64

Line-ups

AVS

Moreirense

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AVS

Moreirense

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Segunda Liga

Last match: 9 Oct · Primeira Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

AVS

Formation not confirmed

25 Raul Steffens

87 Mateus Pivo

26 B. Conde

3 L. Rosic

12 D. Rivas

88 F. Almeida

70 Roni

80 Hiago Santos

19 Rafael Lobato

9 Rodrigo Pinho

30 Talles Wander

Coach · Sergio Fonseca

Substitutes

1 · D. Rebollo

4 · Davi Schuindt

6 · Ponck

7 · G. Neiva

8 · J. Meireles

22 · D. Brasido

– · Thiago Freitas

17 · R. Ndo

28 · A. Sousa

Moreirense

Formation not confirmed

13 A. Ferreira

2 L. Santos

26 Maracas

4 Kevyn Monteiro

27 Kiko

23 N. John

65 Guilherme Liberato

10 K. Bondoso

20 J. Veloso

19 T. Andrade

79 L. Vonic

Coach · Vasco Costa

Substitutes

1 · Aranha

66 · G. Batista

17 · A. Martinez

8 · M. Stjepanovic

7 · M. Mendonca

21 · Rodri

11 · Landerson

28 · C. Songa

99 · Yan Maranhao

Our number · moreirense winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make Moreirense a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AVS v Moreirense~~1.12 – 1.29

~~The market · Moreirense win~~44% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Moreirense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AVS win	33%	29%	+4
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Moreirense win	41%	44%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	43%	0
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−1
AVS or draw	59%	56%	+3
AVS clean sheet	28%	–	–
Moreirense clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.6 12.1 7.4 3.2 1 10.6 12.3 8.2 3.5 2 5.7 7.2 4.6 3 2.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AVS down, Moreirense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,611 Primeira Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AVS at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Moreirense away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for AVS, 1.29 for Moreirense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MOR 0–0 AVS · AVS 0–2 MOR · AVS 0–3 MOR · MOR 1–1 AVS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 20 Sept

AVS

W2–0

MOREIRENSE

No matches in our record yet.

AVS v Moreirense

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

AVS

Moreirense

Rest & schedule

AVS

Moreirense

The game in numbers

Line-ups

AVS

Moreirense

Match statistics

Line-ups

AVS

Moreirense

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 20 Sept