Atlético CP v Vizela prediction · Taça de Portugal

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Atlético CP 1–0 Vizela ATLÉTICO CP WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlético CP win~~36%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.607

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.821

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlético CP win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atlético CP was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–34
1′KICK-OFF Atlético CP v Vizela
4′Much as we predicted: Atlético CP was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–31–33
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Atlético CP win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Atlético CP 0–0 Vizela
46′SECOND HALF Atlético CP 0–0 Vizela
51′A goal for Atlético CP on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–20–5
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Atlético CP 1–0 Vizela
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Atlético CP win: 36% at kick-off, 75% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Atlético CP win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
52′We published Atlético CP at 36%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
52′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 75–20–5
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Atlético CP win: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Vizela
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Atlético CP
64′We published Atlético CP at 36%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Vizela
73′We published Atlético CP at 36%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Atlético CP
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Atlético CP win: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
80′We published Atlético CP at 36%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
86′We published Atlético CP at 36%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Atlético CP win: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Atlético CP 1–0 Vizela
FTAtlético CP 1–0 Vizela · Atlético CP win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Atlético CP just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlético CP 36%, draw 30%, Vizela 34%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Atlético CP v VizelaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atlético CP win36%

Draw30%

Vizela win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 64

Line-ups

Atlético CP

Vizela

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlético CP

Vizela

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Portuguese Liga 3

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atlético CP

Formation not confirmed

99 R. Dias

2 J. Martins

4 D. Henriques

5 V. Durand

6 G. Costa

9 Nicolas Souza

10 Caleb

20 E. Pacheco

28 M. Konate

33 A. Calegari

38 C. Santana

Coach · Pedro D'Oliveira

Substitutes

81 · J. Bolivar

45 · R. Tavares

29 · D. Dinamite

18 · R. Dias

8 · C. Sousa

19 · S. Traore

11 · H. Suker

23 · D. Arezes

85 · N. Gaspar

Vizela

Formation not confirmed

19 A. Vulic

26 L. M. Mina

13 L. Rocha

55 A. Hristov

20 O. Godwin

6 G. Bamba

8 A. Bastunov

31 Neto

11 Thio

23 Y. Fortune

36 M. Lacava

Coach · Ronald Molina

Substitutes

1 · A. Gomis

3 · J. Gonzalez

77 · Jojo

17 · M. Tavares

24 · H. Morschel

95 · A. Traore

70 · C. Canozales

9 · Manu

96 · A. Adamu

Our number · atlético cp winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

36% The market27%

Us36%

~~Market~~27%

We make Atlético CP a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlético CP v Vizela~~1.13 – 1.08

~~Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~The market · Atlético CP win~~27% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlético CP win The market, margin stripped

Published at 34%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlético CP win	36%	27%	+9
Draw	30%	26%	+4
Vizela win	34%	47%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	38%	50%	−12
Both teams to score	45%	54%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	65%	73%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	18%	30%	−12
Atlético CP or draw	66%	53%	+13
Atlético CP clean sheet	34%	–	–
Vizela clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.4 11.4 6.4 2.3 1 12.0 13.8 7.2 2.6 2 7.0 7.6 4.1 3 2.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlético CP down, Vizela across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates the clubs of 638 leagues on one scale, from the 408,654 league, cup and continental matches of the last three years up to 16 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Atlético CP play in the Portuguese Liga 3, Vizela in Segunda Liga.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Atlético CP are at home.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Atlético CP, 1.08 for Vizela. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–1 VIZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 29 Aug

ATLÉTICO CP

WW4–0 · 4–1

VIZELA

W1–0

Atlético CP v Vizela

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Atlético CP

Vizela

Rest & schedule

Atlético CP

Vizela

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Atlético CP

Vizela

Match statistics

Line-ups

Atlético CP

Vizela

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 29 Aug