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Model 1.2

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Alcochetense v Maritimo

Alcochetense
1–2Full time
Maritimo

Taça de Portugal · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02
Alcochetense 1–2 Maritimo MARITIMO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Maritimo win69%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.151

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Maritimo win at 69%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Maritimo 69% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 11–20–68
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Alcochetense v Maritimo
  4. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Maritimo
  5. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Maritimo win: 69% at kick-off, 59% now
  6. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Maritimo
  7. 35′We said Maritimo at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 57%. 0–0 · 12–31–57
  8. 41′We said Maritimo at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 12–34–54
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Alcochetense 0–0 Maritimo
  10. 46′HALF-TIME Alcochetense 0–0 Maritimo
  11. 50′We said Maritimo at 69%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 12–39–49
  12. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Maritimo
  13. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Maritimo win: 69% at kick-off, 49% now
  14. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Maritimo · On: R. Correia · Off: R. Fernandes
  15. 54′We said Maritimo at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 0–1 · 1–10–88
  16. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Alcochetense 0–1 Maritimo
  17. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Maritimo win: 69% at kick-off, 88% now
  18. 55′Maritimo score on 55′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–10–88
  19. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 12–43–46 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  20. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Maritimo win: 69% at kick-off, 89% now
  21. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Alcochetense
  22. 63′We said Maritimo at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  23. 63′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  24. 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Alcochetense 0–2 Maritimo
  25. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Maritimo win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
  26. 64′Maritimo find the net on 64′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  27. 65′We said Maritimo at 69% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  28. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Alcochetense 1–2 Maritimo
  29. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Maritimo win: 69% at kick-off, 90% now
  30. 66′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  31. 66′A goal for Alcochetense on 66′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  32. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Maritimo
  33. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Maritimo
  34. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Maritimo · On: M. Bassouamina · Off: Simo
  35. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Maritimo · On: A. Butzke · Off: M. Boakye
  36. 85′J. Precatado scores for Alcochetense on 64′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–96
  37. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Maritimo · On: T. Tavares · Off: M. Dominguez
  38. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Maritimo
  39. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Maritimo win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
  40. 99′1–2 at the end. Our 69% on Maritimo comes in. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  41. FTFULL TIME Alcochetense 1–2 Maritimo
  42. FTAlcochetense 1–2 Maritimo · Maritimo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Maritimo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alcochetense 11%, draw 20%, Maritimo 69%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Alcochetense v MaritimoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Alcochetense win11%
Draw20%
Maritimo win69%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 64

Line-ups

Alcochetense

Maritimo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alcochetense

Maritimo

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D

Last match: 10 Oct · Primeira Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Alcochetense

Formation not confirmed

99 L. Ribeiro

5 T. Palancha

6 R. Pinto

14 Y. Missael

15 F. Celestino

19 G. Pinto

20 S. Harramiz

45 Valdumar

57 J. Precatado

77 D. Lopes

88 M. Abreu

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Guilherme Christino

7 · L. Tipote

8 · J. Lino

10 · D. Ferreira

12 · M. Amaro

18 · D. Vilhete

23 · R. Pinto

66 · D. Freire

80 · R. Moreno

22 · O. Parkes

Maritimo

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Tabuaco

2 Igor Juliao

4 R. Fernandes

6 R. Andrade

8 M. Dominguez

10 M. Tejon

11 S. Bouzaidi

22 G. Szalai

23 P. Henrique

66 I. Ayuma

90 M. Boakye

Coach · Mitchell van der Gaag

Substitutes

13 · A. Pastor

5 · Nilton

12 · M. Bassouamina

15 · T. Tavares

17 · A. Butzke

21 · I. Alani

27 · S. Bamba

35 · B. Limbombe

44 · R. Correia

Our number · maritimo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
69% The market–
Us69%

We make Maritimo a 69% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–2.0, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Alcochetense v Maritimo0.67 – 2.01

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 14:36
Our probability · Maritimo win

Published at 67%, 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Alcochetense win11%––
Draw20%––
Maritimo win69%––
Over 2.5 goals50%––
Both teams to score43%––
Over 1.5 goals75%––
Over 3.5 goals28%––
Alcochetense or draw31%––
Alcochetense clean sheet13%––
Maritimo clean sheet51%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 13.8%
0123450 7.1 13.4 13.8 9.3 4.7 1 4.3 9.5 9.3 6.2 3.1 2 3.1 3.1 2.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Alcochetense down, Maritimo across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 6 Sept

ALCOCHETENSE

WW8–0 · 2–0

MARITIMO

No matches in our record yet.