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Model 1.2

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Academica v Amarante

Academica
3–2Full time
Amarante

Taça de Portugal · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 23:01
Academica 3–2 Amarante ACADEMICA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Academica win46%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.443
The market’s Brier score0.413

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Academica win at 46%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF Academica v Amarante
  3. 1′Little has changed for our model: Academica 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–28
  4. 11′We said Academica at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–24–56
  5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Academica 0–1 Amarante
  6. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Academica win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
  7. 11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Amarante win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Academica win 20%)
  8. 12′A goal for Amarante on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–24–56
  9. 13′We said Academica at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–56
  10. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Academica 1–1 Amarante
  11. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Academica win: 46% at kick-off, 41% now
  12. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Academica win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Amarante win 26%)
  13. 25′Academica score on 25′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 41–33–26
  14. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Academica win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  15. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Academica win 36%)
  16. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Academica
  17. 46′HALF-TIME Academica 1–1 Amarante
  18. 70′66′: H. Nunes on the scoresheet for Academica, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 84–14–2
  19. 70′⚽ GOAL · 53' Academica 3–2 Amarante · S. Simao
  20. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Amarante
  21. 70′⚽ GOAL · 57' Academica 3–2 Amarante · A. Rodrigues
  22. 70′⚽ GOAL · 66' Academica 3–2 Amarante · H. Nunes
  23. 70′SECOND HALF Academica 3–2 Amarante
  24. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Academica win: 46% at kick-off, 84% now
  25. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Academica win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 14%)
  26. 72′We said Academica at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 3–2 · 86–13–1
  27. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Academica win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
  28. 73′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 86–13–1
  29. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Academica
  30. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Academica
  31. 79′We said Academica at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
  32. 86′We said Academica at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  33. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Academica win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
  34. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Amarante
  35. 95′3–2 at the end. Our 46% on Academica comes in. 3–2 · 100–0–0
  36. FTFULL TIME Academica 3–2 Amarante
  37. FTAcademica 3–2 Amarante · Academica win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Academica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Academica 46%, draw 27%, Amarante 28%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Academica v AmaranteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Academica win46%
Draw27%
Amarante win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:15

RoundRound of 64

VenueEstadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra

Line-ups

Academica

Amarante

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Academica

Amarante

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda Liga

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Academica

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Macedo

15 Kaka

54 Ni Rodrigues

13 Kauan

2 Xavi Grande

20 J. Sinisterra

25 L. Pierre

5 L. Silva

8 K. Zohi

19 A. Rodrigues

92 A. Coundoul

Coach · Antonio Barbosa

Substitutes

98 · C. Alves

23 · R. Gomes

7 · A. Mane

9 · M. Tavares

10 · I. Faure

17 · Marcos Paulo

22 · H. Lopes

46 · H. Nunes

4 · G. Silva

Amarante

Formation not confirmed

51 D. Fernandes

2 G. Cunha

3 F. Mendes

4 J. Filipe

5 Joao Ricardo

8 Tokinho Doria

14 Arome

28 D. Pereira

78 B. Silva

85 Nito

88 R. Alves

Coach · Jorge Pinto

Substitutes

1 · R. Flores

6 · R. Guedes

7 · L. Ferreira

9 · F. Cardoso

15 · R. Beirao

20 · L. Machado

23 · K. Ikugar

26 · A. Zangre

91 · R. Almeida

Our number · academica winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
46% The market48%
Us46%
Market48%

We make Academica a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Academica v Amarante1.41 – 1.03
Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 18 SeptW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Academica win48% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 20:03
Our probability · Academica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Academica win46%48%−2
Draw27%27%0
Amarante win28%25%+3
Over 2.5 goals44%50%−6
Both teams to score48%54%−6
Over 1.5 goals70%74%−4
Over 3.5 goals23%30%−7
Academica or draw72%75%−3
Academica clean sheet36%––
Amarante clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%
0123450 8.8 9.1 4.7 1 12.4 12.4 6.4 2.2 2 8.6 8.8 4.5 3 4.1 4.1 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Academica down, Amarante across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.67
Over 2.50 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsACA 1–1 AMA · AMA 1–1 ACA · AMA 1–0 ACA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça de Portugal this season · since 18 Sept

ACADEMICA

W4–1

AMARANTE

W2–0