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Model 1.2

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Sporting CP v Maritimo

Sporting CP
20:15Upcoming
Maritimo

Taça da Liga · TUE 27 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sporting CPDrawMaritimo
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:15
Before kick-off · Match result · Sporting CP 88%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting CP are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting CP 88%, draw 9%, Maritimo 3%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Sporting CP v MaritimoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sporting CP win88%
Draw9%
Maritimo win3%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 20:15

RoundQuarter-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting CP

Maritimo

6Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 23 Oct · Primeira Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting cp winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off
88% The market–
Us88%

We make Sporting CP an 88% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–0.6, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sporting CP v Maritimo3.34 – 0.60

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
85%90% 21 OCT 00:0124 OCT 23:51
Our probability · Sporting CP win

Published at 86%, 88% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sporting CP win88%––
Draw9%––
Maritimo win3%––
Over 2.5 goals76%––
Both teams to score44%––
Over 1.5 goals91%––
Over 3.5 goals56%––
Sporting CP or draw97%––
Sporting CP clean sheet55%––
Maritimo clean sheet4%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 12.0%
0123450 2.0 1 6.3 4.0 2 10.8 6.5 3 12.0 7.3 2.2 4 10.1 6.1 5 6.7 4.1
under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting CP down, Maritimo across0–5 goals a side shown (87.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsSPO 2–1 MAR · MAR 1–0 SPO · SPO 5–0 MAR · MAR 1–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça da Liga this season

SPORTING CP

No matches in our record yet.

MARITIMO

No matches in our record yet.