SC Braga v Famalicao prediction · Taça da Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SC BragaDrawFamalicao

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:45

Before kick-off · Match result · SC Braga 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC Braga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Braga 53%, draw 24%, Famalicao 23%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on SC Braga v FamalicaoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

SC Braga win53%

Draw24%

Famalicao win23%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 18:45

RoundQuarter-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Braga

Famalicao

7Days since last match11

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc braga winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make SC Braga a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC Braga v Famalicao~~1.61 – 0.96

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Braga win	53%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Famalicao win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
SC Braga or draw	77%	–	–
SC Braga clean sheet	38%	–	–
Famalicao clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 7.3 8.0 3.6 1 12.9 11.2 5.7 2 9.8 9.4 4.5 3 5.3 5.0 2.4 4 2.2 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Braga down, Famalicao across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,616 Primeira Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Braga at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Famalicao away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for SC Braga, 0.96 for Famalicao. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SCB 2–2 FAM · FAM 1–2 SCB · FAM 1–1 SCB · SCB 3–3 FAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça da Liga this season

SC BRAGA

No matches in our record yet.

FAMALICAO

No matches in our record yet.

SC Braga v Famalicao

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

SC Braga

Famalicao

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Taça da Liga this season