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Model 1.2

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Benfica v GIL Vicente

Benfica
20:45Upcoming
GIL Vicente

Taça da Liga · THU 29 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BenficaDrawGIL Vicente
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:45
Before kick-off · Match result · Benfica 72%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Benfica are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Benfica 72%, draw 17%, GIL Vicente 11%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Benfica v GIL VicenteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Benfica win72%
Draw17%
GIL Vicente win11%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 20:45

RoundQuarter-finals

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Benfica

GIL Vicente

7Days since last match5

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 24 Oct · Primeira Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · benfica winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
72% The market–
Us72%

We make Benfica a 72% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Benfica v GIL Vicente2.25 – 0.74

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Benfica win72%––
Draw17%––
GIL Vicente win11%––
Over 2.5 goals57%––
Both teams to score46%––
Over 1.5 goals79%––
Over 3.5 goals35%––
Benfica or draw89%––
Benfica clean sheet48%––
GIL Vicente clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.6%
0123450 4.8 4.2 1 11.7 8.0 3.2 2 12.6 9.2 3.5 3 9.4 6.9 2.6 4 5.4 3.9 5 2.5
under 2% 5% 12%+Benfica down, GIL Vicente across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.60
Over 2.59 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsBEN 3–1 GIL · GIL 1–2 BEN · BEN 2–1 GIL · GIL 0–3 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Taça da Liga this season

BENFICA

No matches in our record yet.

GIL VICENTE

No matches in our record yet.