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Vizela v Sporting CP B

Vizela

0–2Full time

Sporting CP B

Segunda Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio do FC Vizela

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 23:31

Vizela 0–2 Sporting CP B VIZELA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vizela win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.717

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.826

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vizela win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: Vizela was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–29–31
2′KICK-OFF Vizela v Sporting CP B
11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Vizela
12′Much as we predicted: Vizela was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Vizela 0–1 Sporting CP B
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Vizela 0–1 Sporting CP B
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Vizela 0–2 Sporting CP B
45′HALF-TIME Vizela 0–2 Sporting CP B
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Vizela 0–2 Sporting CP B
46′SECOND HALF Vizela 0–2 Sporting CP B
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vizela · On: Neto · Off: Angel Bastunov Corrected
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Vizela · On: luis mina · Off: Jójó Corrected
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sporting CP B · On: Kauã Wellhington Oliveira Pinto · Off: Eduardo Felicissimo Corrected
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sporting CP B · On: Moncef Zekri · Off: Rodrigo Dias Corrected
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Vizela
60′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Anthony Carter · Vizela
64′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Jean-Pierre Rhyner · Vizela
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sporting CP B · On: Salvador Blopa · Off: Paulo Cardoso Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Vizela · On: José Sampaio · Off: Jean-Pierre Rhyner Corrected
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Sporting CP B
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vizela · On: Yassin Fortune · Off: Anthony Carter Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vizela · On: Natanael Ntolla · Off: Miguel Tavares Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sporting CP B · On: Ivanildo da Silva Mendes · Off: Rodrigo Rodrigues Corrected
FTFULL TIME Vizela 0–2 Sporting CP B
FTVizela 0–2 Sporting CP B · Vizela win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Vizela win40%

Draw28%

Sporting CP B win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:30

Venue · Estadio do FC Vizela

Referee · Flavio Jesus

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Vizela

4-2-3-1

1 A. Gomis

77 Jojo

13 L. Rocha

4 J. Rhyner

20 O. Godwin

8 A. Bastunov

6 G. Bamba

17 M. Tavares

24 H. Morschel

36 M. Lacava

99 A. Carter

Coach · Ronald Molina

Substitutes

19 · A. Vulic

3 · J. Gonzalez

9 · Manu

11 · Thio

22 · L. Antanon

23 · Y. Fortune

26 · L. M. Mina

31 · Neto

37 · J. Sampaio

55 · A. Hristov

70 · C. Canozales

95 · A. Traore

Sporting CP B

Formation not confirmed

99 F. Silva

76 R. Rodrigues

73 E. Felicissimo

95 L. Taibo Dominguez

50 R. Dias

40 M. Tanlongo

96 S. Justo

47 M. Sanha

78 M. Couto

87 P. Cardoso

9 R. Nel

Coach · –

Substitutes

74 · G. Pires

18 · M. Zekri

59 · Kaua Oliveira

62 · Ivanildo

63 · R. Camacho

65 · M. Almeida

66 · M. Alves

70 · S. Blopa

82 · G. Silva

83 · Z. Bafdili

85 · R. Mota

88 · Bidu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Vizela

4-2-3-1

1 A. Gomis

77 Jojo

13 L. Rocha

4 J. Rhyner

20 O. Godwin

8 A. Bastunov

6 G. Bamba

17 M. Tavares

24 H. Morschel

36 M. Lacava

99 A. Carter

Coach · Ronald Molina

Substitutes

19 · A. Vulic

3 · J. Gonzalez

9 · Manu

11 · Thio

22 · L. Antanon

23 · Y. Fortune

26 · L. M. Mina

31 · Neto

37 · J. Sampaio

55 · A. Hristov

70 · C. Canozales

95 · A. Traore

Sporting CP B

Formation not confirmed

99 F. Silva

76 R. Rodrigues

73 E. Felicissimo

95 L. Taibo Dominguez

50 R. Dias

40 M. Tanlongo

96 S. Justo

47 M. Sanha

78 M. Couto

87 P. Cardoso

9 R. Nel

Coach · –

Substitutes

74 · G. Pires

18 · M. Zekri

59 · Kaua Oliveira

62 · Ivanildo

63 · R. Camacho

65 · M. Almeida

66 · M. Alves

70 · S. Blopa

82 · G. Silva

83 · Z. Bafdili

85 · R. Mota

88 · Bidu

Our number · vizela winPublished 10 Oct 20:35

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Vizela a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · vizela win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vizela win	40%	45%	−5
Draw	28%	28%	0
Sporting CP B win	31%	26%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	39%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	65%	70%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	25%	−6
Vizela or draw	69%	74%	−5
Vizela clean sheet	36%	–	–
Sporting CP B clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 10.7 11.1 5.6 1 13.1 13.0 6.7 2.3 2 7.8 7.9 4.1 3 3.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vizela down, Sporting CP B across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 Segunda Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vizela at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting CP B away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Vizela, 1.02 for Sporting CP B. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 20:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VIZ 1–0 SPO · SPO 0–1 VIZ

Form · last six in Segunda Liga

VIZELA

WLDWWD1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

SPORTING CP B

WWLWWL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	+7	16
2	Penafiel	7	+7	13
3	Sporting CP B	6	+2	12
4	Farense	6	+6	11
5	Vizela	6	+3	11
6	União de Leiria	6	+3	10
7	Leixoes	6	+2	10
8	Benfica B	6	+2	10
9	AVS	7	+1	9
10	Tondela	6	+1	9
11	Academica	6	−2	9
12	Portimonense	6	−2	7
13	Felgueiras 1932	6	−1	6
14	Torreense	6	−2	6
15	Amarante	6	−3	5
16	Chaves	6	−8	4
17	FC Porto B	6	−9	4
18	Feirense	6	−7	1