União de Leiria v Academica prediction · Segunda Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

União de Leiria 0–2 Academica UNIÃO DE LEIRIA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said União de Leiria win~~52%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.895

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.863

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said União de Leiria win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: União de Leiria was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
4′Much as we predicted: União de Leiria was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
43′Leandro Silva scores for Academica on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–26–58
45′We said União de Leiria at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–26–59
45′SECOND HALF União de Leiria 0–1 Academica
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' União de Leiria · On: Tharlley Oliveira Da Silva · Off: Kouassi Eboue Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' União de Leiria · On: Marc Baró · Off: Hugo Masaki Corrected
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Academica · On: Gabriel Miranda Rodrigues · Off: Ricardo Teixeira Corrected
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' União de Leiria 0–2 Academica · Leandro Silva
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' União de Leiria 0–2 Academica
50′Leandro Silva scores for Academica on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–26–59
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' União de Leiria win: 52% at kick-off, 46% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' União de Leiria win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Academica win 24%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' União de Leiria win: 52% at kick-off, 15% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Academica win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was União de Leiria win 15%)
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Academica win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was União de Leiria win 15%)
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Academica · On: Alioune Mané · Off: Kaka Corrected
62′49′ and it is 0–2: Kevin Zohi on the scoresheet for Academica. 0–2 · 1–7–92
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' União de Leiria win: 52% at kick-off, 1% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' União de Leiria win: 52% at kick-off, 15% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Academica · On: Marcos Paulo · Off: Leverton Pierre Corrected
65′49′ and it is 0–2: Kevin Zohi on the scoresheet for Academica. 0–2 · 1–6–93
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' União de Leiria win: 52% at kick-off, 1% now
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' União de Leiria win: 52% at kick-off, 15% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' União de Leiria · On: Damien Loppy · Off: José Nabil Ondo Onva Adjugu Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' União de Leiria · On: Jair silva da goncalves · Off: Jose Pedro Barros Goncalves Corrected
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Academica
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' União de Leiria 1–2 Academica · Kevin Zohi
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Academica · On: Hugo Nunes · Off: Leandro Silva Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Academica · On: Rui Gomes · Off: Kevin Zohi Corrected
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' União de Leiria 0–2 Academica
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' União de Leiria
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' União de Leiria · On: Samuel Ntanda-Lukisa · Off: jaiminho Corrected
86′We said União de Leiria at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Afonso Rodrigues · Academica
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Ibrahima Kalil·Guirassy · União de Leiria
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Academica · On: Ilies Faure · Off: Amadou Coundoul Corrected
FTFULL TIME União de Leiria 0–2 Academica
FTUnião de Leiria 0–2 Academica · União de Leiria win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

União de Leiria win52%

Draw23%

Academica win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:00

VenueEstádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

RefereeMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca

Line-ups

União de Leiria

4-4-2

Academica

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

União de Leiria

Academica

28Days since last match30

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	União de Leiria	6	+3	10
12	Academica	6	−2	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

União de Leiria

4-4-2

99 J. Odehnal

68 Maga

44 Marcelo

16 Ze Pedro

70 H. Masaki

21 Jaiminho

6 E. Kouassi

98 Guirassy

17 P. Fernandez

7 N. Ondo

9 J. Munoz

Coach · Fabio Pereira

Substitutes

3 · M. Baro

8 · Reko

11 · Jair da Silva

18 · Tharlley

25 · D. Amado

29 · D. Loppy

34 · Quilma

42 · T. Caturra

79 · P. Oliveira

80 · C. Joel

82 · S. Ntanda

88 · D. Martins

Academica

4-3-3

12 Victor Braga

2 Xavi Grande

3 R. Teixeira

4 G. Silva

15 Kaka

25 L. Pierre

5 L. Silva

20 J. Sinisterra

8 K. Zohi

92 A. Coundoul

19 A. Rodrigues

Coach · Antonio Barbosa

Substitutes

1 · N. Macedo

7 · A. Mane

9 · M. Tavares

10 · I. Faure

13 · Kauan

17 · Marcos Paulo

23 · R. Gomes

26 · T. Soares

46 · H. Nunes

54 · Ni Rodrigues

60 · J. Ribeiro Oliveira

98 · C. Alves

Our number · união de leiria winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

52% The market48%

Us52%

~~Market~~48%

We make União de Leiria a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · união de leiria win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
União de Leiria win	52%	48%	+4
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Academica win	25%	25%	0
Over 2.5 goals	55%	50%	+5
Both teams to score	56%	54%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	74%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	33%	30%	+3
União de Leiria or draw	75%	75%	0
União de Leiria clean sheet	33%	–	–
Academica clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.5 6.4 3.6 1 9.9 10.8 6.2 2.4 2 8.6 9.6 5.4 2.1 3 5.1 5.7 3.2 4 2.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+União de Leiria down, Academica across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,599 Segunda Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

União de Leiria at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Academica away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for União de Leiria, 1.13 for Academica. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda Liga

UNIÃO DE LEIRIA

LLWWWD0–1 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

ACADEMICA

WWWLLL4–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	+7	16
2	Sporting CP B	7	+4	15
3	Penafiel	7	+7	13
4	Tondela	7	+2	12
5	Farense	6	+6	11
6	Vizela	7	+1	11
7	União de Leiria	6	+3	10
8	Benfica B	6	+2	10
9	Leixoes	7	+1	10
10	Portimonense	7	−1	10
11	AVS	7	+1	9
12	Academica	6	−2	9
13	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
14	Felgueiras 1932	6	−1	6
15	Torreense	7	−3	6
16	Amarante	7	−4	5
17	Chaves	6	−8	4
18	Feirense	6	−7	1