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Tondela v Torreense

Tondela

1–0Full time

Torreense

Segunda Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Estádio João Cardoso

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Tondela 1–0 Torreense TONDELA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tondela win~~41%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.518

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.547

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tondela win at 41%.
2′KICK-OFF Tondela v Torreense
3′Little has changed for our model: Tondela 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
21′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Tondela
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Tondela
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' João Marques · Torreense
45′SECOND HALF Tondela 0–0 Torreense
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Tondela win 32%)
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Malik Abubakari · Torreense
55′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Torreense
56′🟥 RED CARD · 56' Torreense
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Torreense
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' José María Pérez García · Tondela
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tondela · On: Bebeto · Off: Carraça
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tondela · On: Bebeto · Off: Carraça
73′🟥 RED CARD · 73' Tondela
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Torreense · On: musa drammeh · Off: Malik Abubakari Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Torreense · On: Nuha Jatta · Off: Dany Jean Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Tondela · On: Tiago Dias · Off: Clebson Cicero Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Tondela · On: Sphephelo Sithole · Off: Hugo Félix Corrected
75′🟥 RED CARD · 74' Torreense
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Torreense · On: Andre Simões · Off: Alejandro Alfaro Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Torreense · On: Ianique Tavares Stopira · Off: João Marques Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tondela · On: Richarllyson Carvalho Alves · Off: Arjen Van Der Heide Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Tondela · On: Joao Marcos Lima Candido · Off: Mateus Ferreira Corrected
95′🟥 RED CARD · 95' Mohamed Ali Diadie · Torreense
98′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Bebeto · Tondela
99′⚽ GOAL · 99' Tondela 1–0 Torreense
100′🟥 RED CARD · 96' Richarllyson Carvalho Alves · Tondela
103′⚽ GOAL · 100' Tondela 1–0 Torreense · Rodrigo Cascavel
FTFULL TIME Tondela 1–0 Torreense
FTTondela 1–0 Torreense · Tondela win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tondela win41%

Draw27%

Torreense win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Estádio João Cardoso

Referee · Vitor Jorge Fernandes Ferreira

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Tondela

4-2-3-1

28 Carlao

15 Carraca

4 C. Marques

6 Farru

12 Ze Ricardo

97 Cicero

37 Mateus Sarara

26 A. van der Heide

20 H. Felix

7 Cascavel

19 Tomane

Coach · Ricardo Costa

Substitutes

1 · L. Canizares

95 · R. da Silva

2 · Bebeto

3 · I. Kamga

5 · J. Afonso

8 · H. Tavares

9 · Joao Lima

11 · Richarllyson

13 · Y. Sithole

14 · X. Huarte

22 · B. Almeida

77 · Tiago Dias

Torreense

4-2-3-1

31 Adriel

22 David Bruno

4 Volnei

5 D. Mohamed

23 J. Vazquez

6 A. Oudrhiri

8 A. Alfaro

29 L. Quintero

33 J. Marques

7 D. Jean

27 M. Abubakari

Coach · Luis Tralhao

Substitutes

1 · Lucas Paes

2 · Stopira

3 · J. Alcedo

11 · M. Pozo

17 · M. Drammeh

19 · K. Zoabi

20 · C. Reina

21 · N. Jatta

26 · A. Simoes

28 · H. Perez

45 · J. Mutombo

77 · J. Romero

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Tondela

4-2-3-1

28 Carlao

15 Carraca

4 C. Marques

6 Farru

12 Ze Ricardo

97 Cicero

37 Mateus Sarara

26 A. van der Heide

20 H. Felix

7 Cascavel

19 Tomane

Coach · Ricardo Costa

Substitutes

1 · L. Canizares

95 · R. da Silva

2 · Bebeto

3 · I. Kamga

5 · J. Afonso

8 · H. Tavares

9 · Joao Lima

11 · Richarllyson

13 · Y. Sithole

14 · X. Huarte

22 · B. Almeida

77 · Tiago Dias

Torreense

4-2-3-1

31 Adriel

22 David Bruno

4 Volnei

5 D. Mohamed

23 J. Vazquez

6 A. Oudrhiri

8 A. Alfaro

29 L. Quintero

33 J. Marques

7 D. Jean

27 M. Abubakari

Coach · Luis Tralhao

Substitutes

1 · Lucas Paes

2 · Stopira

3 · J. Alcedo

11 · M. Pozo

17 · M. Drammeh

19 · K. Zoabi

20 · C. Reina

21 · N. Jatta

26 · A. Simoes

28 · H. Perez

45 · J. Mutombo

77 · J. Romero

Our number · tondela winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

41% The market40%

Us41%

~~Market~~40%

We make Tondela a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tondela win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tondela win	41%	40%	+2
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Torreense win	32%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	43%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−1
Tondela or draw	68%	70%	−1
Tondela clean sheet	33%	–	–
Torreense clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.9 10.0 5.5 2.0 1 11.8 12.7 7.1 2.6 2 7.6 8.4 4.6 3 3.3 3.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tondela down, Torreense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 Segunda Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tondela at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Torreense away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Tondela, 1.11 for Torreense. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 10:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TON 2–2 TOR · TOR 0–2 TON · TOR 0–1 TON · TON 1–2 TOR

Form · last six in Segunda Liga

TONDELA

WLLLWW2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–0

TORREENSE

LDDLWD1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	+7	16
2	Penafiel	7	+7	13
3	Sporting CP B	6	+2	12
4	Farense	6	+6	11
5	Vizela	6	+3	11
6	União de Leiria	6	+3	10
7	Leixoes	6	+2	10
8	Benfica B	6	+2	10
9	AVS	7	+1	9
10	Tondela	6	+1	9
11	Academica	6	−2	9
12	Portimonense	6	−2	7
13	Felgueiras 1932	6	−1	6
14	Torreense	6	−2	6
15	Amarante	6	−3	5
16	Chaves	6	−8	4
17	FC Porto B	6	−9	4
18	Feirense	6	−7	1