Tondela v Felgueiras 1932 prediction · Segunda Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

TondelaDrawFelgueiras 1932

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tondela 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tondela are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tondela 44%, draw 28%, Felgueiras 1932 28%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Tondela v Felgueiras 1932Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Tondela win44%

Draw28%

Felgueiras 1932 win28%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tondela

Felgueiras 1932

12Days since last match12

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Tondela	7	+2	12
15	Felgueiras 1932	7	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tondela winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Tondela a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tondela v Felgueiras 1932~~1.28 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 6~~7 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tondela win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Felgueiras 1932 win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Tondela or draw	72%	–	–
Tondela clean sheet	38%	–	–
Felgueiras 1932 clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 10.6 10.5 5.0 1 13.8 12.8 6.3 2.0 2 8.6 8.3 4.0 3 3.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tondela down, Felgueiras 1932 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,604 Segunda Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tondela at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Felgueiras 1932 away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Tondela, 0.96 for Felgueiras 1932. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FEL 1–0 TON · TON 1–1 FEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 16 Aug

TONDELA

LLLWWW0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

FELGUEIRAS 1932

DDWLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP B	8	+7	18
2	Lusitânia Lourosa	7	+7	17
3	Academica	8	+4	15
4	Farense	7	+7	14
5	Benfica B	8	+3	14
6	Penafiel	7	+7	13
7	Tondela	7	+2	12
8	Vizela	8	0	11
9	União de Leiria	7	+1	10
10	Leixoes	8	−3	10
11	Portimonense	8	−4	10
12	AVS	7	+1	9
13	Chaves	8	−7	8
14	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
15	Felgueiras 1932	7	−2	6
16	Torreense	7	−3	6
17	Amarante	7	−4	5
18	Feirense	8	−8	2