Sporting CP B v Portimonense prediction · Segunda Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Sporting CP B 3–0 Portimonense SPORTING CP B WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting CP B win~~48%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.404

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.449

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting CP B win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sporting CP B was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Sporting CP B v Portimonense
9′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Sporting CP B
16′We published Sporting CP B at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Sporting CP B 1–0 Portimonense
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Sporting CP B win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
18′Sporting CP B find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–6
31′7 shots for Portimonense, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
37′Portimonense have had 8 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–6
37′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Sporting CP B · On: Rafael Mota · Off: Miguel Alves
39′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Jarleysom Ferreira de Amurim · Portimonense
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Sporting CP B win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Felipe Favero · Portimonense
45′HALF-TIME Sporting CP B 1–0 Portimonense
46′We published Sporting CP B at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
46′SECOND HALF Sporting CP B 1–0 Portimonense
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Sporting CP B 2–0 Portimonense
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Sporting CP B win: 48% at kick-off, 95% now
51′Mauro Couto scores for Sporting CP B on 46′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sporting CP B · On: Rodrigo Rodrigues · Off: Atanasio
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sporting CP B · On: Paulo Cardoso · Off: Bidu
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sporting CP B · On: Mauro Couto · Off: Samuel Loureiro Carvalho Justo
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Portimonense · On: Yanis da Rocha · Off: Felipe Favero
56′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Samuel Neves Bengue · Portimonense
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Portimonense · On: Samuel Yépié Yépié · Off: Dânio Djassi
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Portimonense · On: Diogo Cabral · Off: Jarleysom Ferreira de Amurim
61′We published Sporting CP B at 48%. Our model now makes it 82%. 2–1 · 82–15–3
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Sporting CP B 2–1 Portimonense
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Sporting CP B win: 48% at kick-off, 82% now
62′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 82–15–3
63′Portimonense score on 61′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
64′GOAL DISALLOWED · 64' Portimonense
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Sporting CP B win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
80′We published Sporting CP B at 48%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sporting CP B · On: Mateo Tanlongo · Off: Ivanildo da Silva Mendes
83′Portimonense have had 16 attempts to 10 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Sporting CP B 3–0 Portimonense
92′87′: Kauã Wellhington Oliveira Pinto on the scoresheet for Sporting CP B, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
92′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Portimonense · On: Thauan Lara dos Santos · Off: João Reis
92′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Portimonense · On: Midana Bigna Soares Cassama · Off: Tiago Filipe Prazeres Ferreira
FTFULL TIME Sporting CP B 3–0 Portimonense
FTSporting CP B 3–0 Portimonense · Sporting CP B win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting CP B are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting CP B 48%, draw 26%, Portimonense 26%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Sporting CP B v PortimonenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sporting CP B win48%

Draw26%

Portimonense win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueCGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira

RefereeVitor Miguel Oliveira Lopes

Line-ups

Sporting CP B

3-5-2

Portimonense

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting CP B

Portimonense

14Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Segunda Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sporting CP B	7	+4	15
11	Portimonense	7	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting CP B

3-5-2

99 Francisco Silva

84 Atanasio

66 Miguel Monteiro Alves

45 D. Coxi

59 Kauã Oliveira

83 Z. Bafdili

62 I. da Silva Mendes

96 Samuel Justo

63 Rafael Camacho

82 Gabriel Silva

88 Bidu

Coach · Tiago Fernandes

Substitutes

87 · Paulo Cardoso

57 · C. Grombahi

78 · Mauro Couto

76 · Rodrigo Rodrigues

74 · Guilherme Pires

85 · Rafael Mota

86 · A. Lee

40 · M. Tanlongo

91 · M. Almeida

53 · Diego Rafael Tavares Capítulo Farinha

48 · joao rijo

89 · Leonardo Gomes Fernandes Varela

Portimonense

3-4-3

1 Dudu

6 S. Neves

4 Italo Cabelinho

3 Jarleysom Amurim

2 Edney

15 Xavier

80 Felipe Favero

17 João Reis

18 Tiago Ferreira

93 Welinton Júnior

7 Danio Djassi

Coach · Alex

Substitutes

65 · Wellington

36 · Thauan Lara

73 · Marlon Júnior

8 · João Casimiro

9 · S. Yépié Yépié

21 · Yanis da Rocha

11 · Diogo Cabral

19 · Midana Cassama

38 · wermeson

79 · Paulinho

70 · G. Aguas

5 · G. Tunguliyadi

Our number · sporting cp b winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market45%

Us48%

~~Market~~45%

We make Sporting CP B a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting CP B v Portimonense~~1.45 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 15 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 10~~2 v 11

~~The market · Sporting CP B win~~45% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting CP B win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting CP B win	48%	45%	+3
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Portimonense win	26%	26%	0
Over 2.5 goals	44%	44%	0
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Over 3.5 goals	23%	24%	−1
Sporting CP B or draw	74%	74%	0
Sporting CP B clean sheet	38%	–	–
Portimonense clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 8.8 8.9 4.2 1 13.0 12.3 6.1 2 9.3 8.9 4.4 3 4.5 4.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting CP B down, Portimonense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,604 Segunda Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting CP B at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Portimonense away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Sporting CP B, 0.98 for Portimonense. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPO 4–3 POR · POR 1–2 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 15 Aug

SPORTING CP B

WLWWLW1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

PORTIMONENSE

WDLLLW2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	7	+7	17
2	Sporting CP B	7	+4	15
3	Farense	7	+7	14
4	Penafiel	7	+7	13
5	Benfica B	7	+3	13
6	Academica	7	0	12
7	Tondela	7	+2	12
8	Vizela	8	0	11
9	União de Leiria	7	+1	10
10	Leixoes	7	+1	10
11	Portimonense	7	−1	10
12	AVS	7	+1	9
13	Chaves	8	−7	8
14	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
15	Felgueiras 1932	7	−2	6
16	Torreense	7	−3	6
17	Amarante	7	−4	5
18	Feirense	7	−8	1