Portimonense v Torreense prediction · Segunda Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PortimonenseDrawTorreense

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Torreense 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torreense are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portimonense 32%, draw 27%, Torreense 41%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Portimonense v TorreenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Portimonense win32%

Draw27%

Torreense win41%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portimonense

Torreense

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · Segunda Liga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Portimonense	8	−4	10
16	Torreense	7	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · torreense winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Torreense a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Portimonense v Torreense~~1.13 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~11 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portimonense win	32%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Torreense win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Portimonense or draw	59%	–	–
Portimonense clean sheet	27%	–	–
Torreense clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.5 11.4 7.5 3.4 1 9.8 12.6 8.5 3.8 2 5.5 7.2 4.8 2.1 3 2.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portimonense down, Torreense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,608 Segunda Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Portimonense at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Torreense away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Portimonense, 1.33 for Torreense. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~TOR 1–0 POR · POR 0–1 TOR · POR 1–2 TOR · TOR 3–2 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 15 Aug

PORTIMONENSE

DLLLWL1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–3

TORREENSE

DDLWDL2–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP B	8	+7	18
2	Lusitânia Lourosa	7	+7	17
3	Penafiel	8	+10	16
4	Academica	8	+4	15
5	Farense	8	+4	14
6	Benfica B	8	+3	14
7	Tondela	7	+2	12
8	Vizela	8	0	11
9	União de Leiria	7	+1	10
10	Leixoes	8	−3	10
11	Portimonense	8	−4	10
12	AVS	7	+1	9
13	Chaves	8	−7	8
14	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
15	Felgueiras 1932	7	−2	6
16	Torreense	7	−3	6
17	Amarante	7	−4	5
18	Feirense	8	−8	2