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Penafiel v AVS

Penafiel

1–2Full time

AVS

Segunda Liga · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Penafiel 1–2 AVS AVS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AVS win~~36%

~~The market said~~23%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.611

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.902

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AVS win at 36%.
29′9′ and it is 0–2: Lobato Rafael on the scoresheet for AVS. 0–2 · 2–8–90
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' AVS win: 36% at kick-off, 90% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' AVS win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Penafiel win 2%)
40′We said Penafiel at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–92
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Penafiel
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' AVS
45′HALF-TIME Penafiel 0–2 AVS
46′SECOND HALF Penafiel 0–2 AVS
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' AVS
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Penafiel · On: Ricardo Schutte · Off: Jaime Sánchez Corrected
52′🟨 YELLOW · 49' AVS
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Penafiel · On: Claudio Mendes · Off: Antonio David Álvarez Rey Corrected
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Penafiel 1–2 AVS · Lobato Rafael
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' AVS · On: Guilherme Neiva · Off: Lobato Rafael Corrected
71′⚽ GOAL · 69' Penafiel 1–2 AVS
75′⚽ GOAL · 69' Penafiel 1–2 AVS
83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' AVS · On: Diogo Brasido · Off: Rodrigo Pinho Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 77' AVS · On: Carlos Ponck · Off: Roni Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' AVS · On: Jorge Meireles · Off: fernando almeida Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' AVS · On: Pedro Pimentel · Off: Hiago Santos Corrected
FTPenafiel 1–2 AVS · AVS win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Penafiel win36%

Draw28%

AVS win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril

Referee · Jose Rodrigues

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Penafiel

3-4-3

1 Oliveira Miguel

5 J. Sanchez

6 A. Pica

2 lano Imbene

27 G. Negrao

21 Pedro Sa

8 A. Carbonell

7 Douglas Borel

17 J. Pinto

9 M. Svensson

10 Davo

Coach · Manuel Aira Jose

Substitutes

3 · C. Moreira

4 · J. Miguel

11 · J. Fuentes

13 · E. Puerto

14 · J. Mere

23 · D. Oliveira

33 · R. Schutte

38 · M. Oliveira

50 · F. Varela

64 · T. Sampaio

79 · T. Teixeira

99 · C. Mendes

AVS

4-3-3

1 D. Rebollo

97 Mateus Pivo

3 L. Rosic

26 B. Conde

12 D. Rivas

70 Roni

88 F. Almeida

80 Hiago Santos

19 Rafael Lobato

9 Rodrigo Pinho

30 Talles Wander

Coach · Sergio Fonseca

Substitutes

4 · Davi Schuindt

6 · Ponck

7 · G. Neiva

8 · J. Meireles

17 · R. Ndo

22 · D. Brasido

25 · Raul Steffens

28 · A. Sousa

49 · P. Pimentel

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Penafiel

3-4-3

1 Oliveira Miguel

5 J. Sanchez

6 A. Pica

2 lano Imbene

27 G. Negrao

21 Pedro Sa

8 A. Carbonell

7 Douglas Borel

17 J. Pinto

9 M. Svensson

10 Davo

Coach · Manuel Aira Jose

Substitutes

3 · C. Moreira

4 · J. Miguel

11 · J. Fuentes

13 · E. Puerto

14 · J. Mere

23 · D. Oliveira

33 · R. Schutte

38 · M. Oliveira

50 · F. Varela

64 · T. Sampaio

79 · T. Teixeira

99 · C. Mendes

AVS

4-3-3

1 D. Rebollo

97 Mateus Pivo

3 L. Rosic

26 B. Conde

12 D. Rivas

70 Roni

88 F. Almeida

80 Hiago Santos

19 Rafael Lobato

9 Rodrigo Pinho

30 Talles Wander

Coach · Sergio Fonseca

Substitutes

4 · Davi Schuindt

6 · Ponck

7 · G. Neiva

8 · J. Meireles

17 · R. Ndo

22 · D. Brasido

25 · Raul Steffens

28 · A. Sousa

49 · P. Pimentel

Our number · avs winPublished 9 Oct 18:04

36% The market23%

Us36%

~~Market~~23%

We make AVS a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Penafiel win	36%	48%	−12
Draw	28%	28%	−1
AVS win	36%	23%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−4
Penafiel or draw	64%	77%	−13
Penafiel clean sheet	31%	–	–
AVS clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.4 11.3 6.6 2.6 1 11.2 12.9 7.7 3.1 2 6.5 7.7 4.5 3 2.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Penafiel down, AVS across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,594 Segunda Liga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Penafiel at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). AVS away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Penafiel, 1.18 for AVS. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PEN 0–1 AVS · AVS 1–0 PEN

Form · last six in Segunda Liga

PENAFIEL

LDWWWW0–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 2–1

AVS

LDDWLD0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	+7	16
2	Penafiel	6	+8	13
3	Sporting CP B	6	+2	12
4	Farense	6	+6	11
5	Vizela	6	+3	11
6	União de Leiria	6	+3	10
7	Leixoes	6	+2	10
8	Benfica B	6	+2	10
9	Tondela	6	+1	9
10	Academica	6	−2	9
11	Portimonense	6	−2	7
12	AVS	6	0	6
13	Felgueiras 1932	6	−1	6
14	Torreense	6	−2	6
15	Amarante	6	−3	5
16	Chaves	6	−8	4
17	FC Porto B	6	−9	4
18	Feirense	6	−7	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Penafiel

AVS

Match statistics

Line-ups

Penafiel

AVS

Head to head

Form · last six in Segunda Liga

The table