Lusitânia Lourosa v Chaves prediction · Segunda Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Chaves LUSITÂNIA LOUROSA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Lusitânia Lourosa win~~41%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.829

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.757

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lusitânia Lourosa win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lusitânia Lourosa was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
3′Much as we predicted: Lusitânia Lourosa was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–33
32′9.0 shots for Chaves, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–34–30
45′Chaves ahead on 44′ through Andre Rodrigues. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–23–67
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lusitânia Lourosa win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Chaves win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Lusitânia Lourosa win 10%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lusitânia Lourosa win: 41% at kick-off, 34% now
46′SECOND HALF Lusitânia Lourosa 0–1 Chaves
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Lusitânia Lourosa win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Chaves win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Lusitânia Lourosa win 10%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Lusitânia Lourosa win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Chaves win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Lusitânia Lourosa win 10%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Lusitânia Lourosa win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Chaves win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Lusitânia Lourosa win 10%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Lusitânia Lourosa win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Chaves win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Lusitânia Lourosa win 10%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Lusitânia Lourosa win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Chaves win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Lusitânia Lourosa win 10%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Lusitânia Lourosa win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Chaves win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Lusitânia Lourosa win 10%)
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lusitânia Lourosa · On: Micael correia · Off: Saliou Mandiang Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Lusitânia Lourosa · On: Miguel Teixeira · Off: Arsénio Nunes Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Chaves · On: Marcos André Paulino Maia · Off: Tomás Morais Costa Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chaves · On: Mamadou Tounkara · Off: Néstor Araujo Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chaves · On: Gabriel Souza da Silva · Off: Wilson Tavares Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chaves · On: Pedro Pelágio · Off: Andre Rodrigues Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Lusitânia Lourosa · On: João Silva · Off: Ricardinho Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Lusitânia Lourosa · On: João Silva · Off: João Santos Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Lusitânia Lourosa · On: Iuri Moreira · Off: Ricardinho Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Chaves · On: Kiko Pereira · Off: Robyn Esajas Corrected
84′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Arsénio Nunes · Lusitânia Lourosa
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Lusitânia Lourosa · On: Daniel Paulo dos Santos · Off: Paulo Miguel·Gomes Ferreira Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Chaves
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Chaves · Andre Rodrigues
FTFULL TIME Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Chaves
FTLusitânia Lourosa 1–1 Chaves · Lusitânia Lourosa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lusitânia Lourosa win41%

Draw26%

Chaves win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

VenueEstadio Do Lusitania

RefereeDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Line-ups

Lusitânia Lourosa

4-3-3

Chaves

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lusitânia Lourosa

Chaves

27Days since last match7

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	+7	16
17	Chaves	6	−8	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lusitânia Lourosa

4-3-3

29 B. Araujo

24 Ricardinho

4 D. Collard

22 B. Faria

52 F. Machado

12 Arsenio

20 D. Paulo

27 Fabinho

19 S. Mandiang

17 J. Santos

21 Paulite

Coach · Ricardo Silva

Substitutes

1 · G. Souza

5 · Silverio

6 · A. Montez

7 · M. Borges

9 · J. Silva

11 · M. Tablante

16 · L. Rocha

42 · Guilherme

60 · Danny

80 · Manel

88 · M. Teixeira

90 · I. A. da Silva Moreira

Chaves

4-3-3

1 J. Valido

23 Leo Alaba

33 T. Simoes

34 R. Alves

14 N. Araujo

42 A. Tavares

19 G. Garcia

10 A. Rodrigues

30 Costinha

18 W. Tavares

7 R. Esajas

Coach · Vitor Martins

Substitutes

5 · Kiko

8 · Joao Teixeira

9 · Marcos Andre

11 · P. Pelagio

13 · I. Vazquez

16 · D. Yearwood

17 · Roberto

27 · Armando Jr

29 · M. Tounkara

80 · M. Fofana

88 · M. Gudzulic

99 · GB

Our number · lusitânia lourosa winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

41% The market41%

Us41%

~~Market~~41%

We make Lusitânia Lourosa a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lusitânia lourosa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 40% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lusitânia Lourosa win	41%	41%	0
Draw	26%	29%	−4
Chaves win	33%	30%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	45%	+4
Both teams to score	53%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	69%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	25%	+2
Lusitânia Lourosa or draw	67%	70%	−4
Lusitânia Lourosa clean sheet	29%	–	–
Chaves clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.2 9.1 5.5 2.3 1 10.2 12.2 7.6 3.1 2 7.0 8.6 5.3 2.2 3 3.3 4.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lusitânia Lourosa down, Chaves across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,599 Segunda Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lusitânia Lourosa at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chaves away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Lusitânia Lourosa, 1.23 for Chaves. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 10:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHA 2–2 LUS · LUS 2–2 CHA

Form · last six in Segunda Liga

LUSITÂNIA LOUROSA

WWDWWW2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

CHAVES

LLDLWL1–4 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	+7	16
2	Sporting CP B	7	+4	15
3	Penafiel	7	+7	13
4	Tondela	7	+2	12
5	Farense	6	+6	11
6	Vizela	7	+1	11
7	União de Leiria	6	+3	10
8	Benfica B	6	+2	10
9	Leixoes	7	+1	10
10	Portimonense	7	−1	10
11	AVS	7	+1	9
12	Academica	6	−2	9
13	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
14	Felgueiras 1932	6	−1	6
15	Torreense	7	−3	6
16	Amarante	7	−4	5
17	Chaves	6	−8	4
18	Feirense	6	−7	1