Leixoes v Sporting CP B prediction · Segunda Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LeixoesDrawSporting CP B

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sporting CP B 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting CP B are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leixoes 31%, draw 27%, Sporting CP B 41%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Leixoes v Sporting CP BBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Leixoes win31%

Draw27%

Sporting CP B win41%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leixoes

Sporting CP B

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Segunda Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting cp b winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Sporting CP B a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leixoes v Sporting CP B~~1.10 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 18~~10 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leixoes win	31%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Sporting CP B win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Leixoes or draw	59%	–	–
Leixoes clean sheet	27%	–	–
Sporting CP B clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.0 11.9 7.7 3.4 1 10.1 12.8 8.4 3.7 2 5.5 7.1 4.6 2.0 3 2.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leixoes down, Sporting CP B across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,608 Segunda Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leixoes at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting CP B away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Leixoes, 1.31 for Sporting CP B. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–1 LEI · LEI 0–4 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 22 Aug

LEIXOES

LWWDLL2–4 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–4

SPORTING CP B

LWWLWW0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP B	8	+7	18
2	Lusitânia Lourosa	7	+7	17
3	Penafiel	8	+10	16
4	Academica	8	+4	15
5	Farense	8	+4	14
6	Benfica B	8	+3	14
7	Tondela	7	+2	12
8	Vizela	8	0	11
9	União de Leiria	7	+1	10
10	Leixoes	8	−3	10
11	Portimonense	8	−4	10
12	AVS	7	+1	9
13	Chaves	8	−7	8
14	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
15	Felgueiras 1932	7	−2	6
16	Torreense	7	−3	6
17	Amarante	7	−4	5
18	Feirense	8	−8	2