Home › Football › Segunda Liga › Leixoes v FC Porto B

Leixoes v FC Porto B

Leixoes

1–2Full time

FC Porto B

Segunda Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio do Mar

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Leixoes 1–2 FC Porto B LEIXOES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leixoes win~~41%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.684

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.092

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 45 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leixoes win at 41%.
3′KICK-OFF Leixoes v FC Porto B
6′Little has changed for our model: Leixoes 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–32
18′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Leixoes
45′Leixoes have had 11.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 33–40–27
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Leixoes win 33%)
45′SECOND HALF Leixoes 0–0 FC Porto B
46′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Matheus Costa · Leixoes
49′🟨 YELLOW · 47' FC Porto B
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Leixoes win 33%)
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Leixoes win 33%)
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Leixoes win 33%)
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Leixoes win 33%)
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Leixoes win 33%)
53′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Hugo Faria · Leixoes
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Leixoes win 33%)
55′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Leixoes
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Leixoes win 33%)
57′🟥 RED CARD · 57' Leixoes
60′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Matheus Costa · Leixoes
65′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Leixoes · On: Lourenço Figueiredo Henriques · Off: Salvador Agra Corrected
65′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Miguel Ferreira de Sousa · Leixoes
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Leixoes 0–1 FC Porto B
67′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Matheus Costa · Leixoes
67′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Bernardo Lima · FC Porto B
67′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Hugo Faria · Leixoes
67′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Matheus Costa · Leixoes
67′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Leixoes · On: Lourenço Figueiredo Henriques · Off: Salvador Agra Corrected
67′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Miguel Ferreira de Sousa · Leixoes
72′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Leixoes · On: Bryan Rochez · Off: Luccas Paraizo Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Leixoes · On: Arthur Baggio · Off: Miguel Ferreira de Sousa Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Porto B · On: Martim cunha · Off: Yoan Pereira Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Porto B · On: Tiago Gonçalves da Silva · Off: Bernardo Lima Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Porto B · On: Duarte Cunha · Off: Joao·Teixeira Corrected
72′⚽ GOAL · 66' Leixoes 0–1 FC Porto B · Eduardo Ferreira
72′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Bryan Rochez · Leixoes
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Leixoes 1–1 FC Porto B · Eduardo Ferreira
80′⚽ GOAL · 76' Leixoes 1–1 FC Porto B · Bryan Rochez
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Leixoes · On: Serif Nhaga · Off: Simaozinho Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Leixoes · On: Fernando Fonseca · Off: Paulinho Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' FC Porto B · On: Trofim Melnichenko · Off: Eduardo Ferreira Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Leixoes · On: Kaique Rodrigues Barbosa Santos · Off: José Manuel Bica Reis Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Porto B · On: Cardoso varela · Off: Gabriel Veron Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' FC Porto B · On: joao abreu · Off: Mateus Mide Corrected
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Leixoes 1–2 FC Porto B · Bryan Rochez
98′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Serif Nhaga · Leixoes
98′⚽ GOAL · 94' Leixoes 1–2 FC Porto B · Kauê Rodrigues Pessanha
FTFULL TIME Leixoes 1–2 FC Porto B
FTLeixoes 1–2 FC Porto B · Leixoes win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Leixoes win41%

Draw26%

FC Porto B win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

Venue · Estadio do Mar

Referee · Jose Bessa

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Leixoes

4-1-3-2

51 I. Stefanovic

77 Paulinho

63 H. Faria

4 Matheus Costa

15 Simaozinho

6 A. Balde

8 Miguel Sousa

7 S. Agra

22 C. Araujo

33 Luccas Paraizo

9 Bica

Coach · Carlos Fangueiro

Substitutes

26 · Caio

3 · L. Figueiredo

14 · Alysson

17 · Arthur Baggio

21 · A. De Armas

2 · F. Fonseca

30 · N. Serif

35 · B. Rochez

44 · Semeu

71 · Kaique

79 · Roka

80 · J. Assuncao

FC Porto B

Formation not confirmed

91 G. Ribeiro

76 Dinis

64 L. Gomes

93 T. Ferreira

55 Y. Pereira

92 J. Teixeira

66 B. Lima

97 Gabriel Veron

89 M. Mide

56 Kaue

53 E. Ferreira

Coach · –

Substitutes

41 · G. Silva

43 · T. Melnichenko

47 · C. Varela

54 · A. Ribeiro

57 · D. Cunha

58 · T. Silva

63 · S. Gomes

70 · E. Granaas

78 · J. Abreu

84 · M. Cunha

85 · F. Ferreira

95 · A. Cande

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Leixoes

4-1-3-2

51 I. Stefanovic

77 Paulinho

63 H. Faria

4 Matheus Costa

15 Simaozinho

6 A. Balde

8 Miguel Sousa

7 S. Agra

22 C. Araujo

33 Luccas Paraizo

9 Bica

Coach · Carlos Fangueiro

Substitutes

26 · Caio

3 · L. Figueiredo

14 · Alysson

17 · Arthur Baggio

21 · A. De Armas

2 · F. Fonseca

30 · N. Serif

35 · B. Rochez

44 · Semeu

71 · Kaique

79 · Roka

80 · J. Assuncao

FC Porto B

Formation not confirmed

91 G. Ribeiro

76 Dinis

64 L. Gomes

93 T. Ferreira

55 Y. Pereira

92 J. Teixeira

66 B. Lima

97 Gabriel Veron

89 M. Mide

56 Kaue

53 E. Ferreira

Coach · –

Substitutes

41 · G. Silva

43 · T. Melnichenko

47 · C. Varela

54 · A. Ribeiro

57 · D. Cunha

58 · T. Silva

63 · S. Gomes

70 · E. Granaas

78 · J. Abreu

84 · M. Cunha

85 · F. Ferreira

95 · A. Cande

Our number · leixoes winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

41% The market59%

Us41%

~~Market~~59%

We make Leixoes a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leixoes win	41%	59%	−18
Draw	26%	24%	+2
FC Porto B win	33%	17%	+16
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	49%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	30%	−3
Leixoes or draw	67%	83%	−16
Leixoes clean sheet	30%	–	–
FC Porto B clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.3 9.1 5.5 2.2 1 10.3 12.3 7.6 3.1 2 7.1 8.6 5.3 2.1 3 3.3 4.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leixoes down, FC Porto B across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 Segunda Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leixoes at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC Porto B away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Leixoes, 1.22 for FC Porto B. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCP 0–3 LEI · LEI 2–4 FCP · FCP 0–1 LEI · LEI 3–0 FCP

Form · last six in Segunda Liga

LEIXOES

LWLWWD0–1 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0

FC PORTO B

LLWLLD0–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	+7	16
2	Penafiel	7	+7	13
3	Sporting CP B	6	+2	12
4	Farense	6	+6	11
5	Vizela	6	+3	11
6	União de Leiria	6	+3	10
7	Leixoes	6	+2	10
8	Benfica B	6	+2	10
9	AVS	7	+1	9
10	Tondela	6	+1	9
11	Academica	6	−2	9
12	Portimonense	6	−2	7
13	Felgueiras 1932	6	−1	6
14	Torreense	6	−2	6
15	Amarante	6	−3	5
16	Chaves	6	−8	4
17	FC Porto B	6	−9	4
18	Feirense	6	−7	1