Felgueiras 1932 v Lusitânia Lourosa prediction · Segunda Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Felgueiras 1932DrawLusitânia Lourosa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Felgueiras 1932 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Felgueiras 1932 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Felgueiras 1932 39%, draw 27%, Lusitânia Lourosa 33%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Felgueiras 1932 v Lusitânia LourosaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Felgueiras 1932 win39%

Draw27%

Lusitânia Lourosa win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueEstadio Dr. Machado de Matos

RefereeJoao Goncalves

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Felgueiras 1932

Lusitânia Lourosa

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Lusitânia Lourosa	7	+7	17
15	Felgueiras 1932	7	−2	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · felgueiras 1932 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 24 Oct 04:11 · locked at kick-off

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make Felgueiras 1932 a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Felgueiras 1932 v Lusitânia Lourosa~~1.26 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 17~~15 v 2

~~The market · Felgueiras 1932 win~~38% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Felgueiras 1932 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Felgueiras 1932 win	39%	38%	+1
Draw	27%	31%	−4
Lusitânia Lourosa win	33%	31%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	41%	+2
Both teams to score	48%	47%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	66%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	22%	0
Felgueiras 1932 or draw	67%	69%	−2
Felgueiras 1932 clean sheet	32%	–	–
Lusitânia Lourosa clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.1 10.5 5.9 2.2 1 11.6 12.8 7.3 2.8 2 7.3 8.1 4.6 3 3.1 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Felgueiras 1932 down, Lusitânia Lourosa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,608 Segunda Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Felgueiras 1932 at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lusitânia Lourosa away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Felgueiras 1932, 1.13 for Lusitânia Lourosa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LUS 2–1 FEL · FEL 3–1 LUS · FEL 2–0 LUS · LUS 1–0 FEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 16 Aug

FELGUEIRAS 1932

DDWLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

LUSITÂNIA LOUROSA

WDWWWD1–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP B	8	+7	18
2	Lusitânia Lourosa	7	+7	17
3	Penafiel	8	+10	16
4	Academica	8	+4	15
5	Farense	8	+4	14
6	Benfica B	8	+3	14
7	Tondela	7	+2	12
8	Vizela	8	0	11
9	União de Leiria	7	+1	10
10	Leixoes	8	−3	10
11	Portimonense	8	−4	10
12	AVS	7	+1	9
13	Chaves	8	−7	8
14	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
15	Felgueiras 1932	7	−2	6
16	Torreense	7	−3	6
17	Amarante	7	−4	5
18	Feirense	8	−8	2