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Feirense v Benfica B

Feirense
0–0Full time
Benfica B

Segunda Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Estádio Marcolino de Castro

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Feirense 0–0 Benfica B BENFICA B WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Benfica B win38%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.799
The market’s Brier score0.765

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Benfica B win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Benfica B 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 35–27–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Feirense v Benfica B
  4. 28′A goal for Feirense on 27′. 0–0 · 32–34–34
  5. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Benfica B win 35%)
  6. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Rui silva · Benfica B
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Feirense 0–0 Benfica B
  8. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Feirense
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Feirense 0–0 Benfica B
  10. 47′Jair Monteiro scores for Feirense on 44′. 0–0 · 28–43–30
  11. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Benfica B win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
  12. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–42–30
  13. 56′We said Benfica B at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 25–49–26
  14. 61′We said Benfica B at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–53–24
  15. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Francisco Silva · Benfica B
  16. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Benfica B · On: Peter Edokpolor · Off: Olivio Tomé
  17. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Benfica B · On: Martim Ferreira · Off: Rui silva
  18. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Benfica B · On: Stevan Pedro Dores Manuel · Off: Francisco Silva
  19. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Feirense · On: Pedro Henrique de Oliveira da Silva · Off: Henrique Pereira
  20. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Luís Teixeira Pinto · Feirense
  21. 70′We said Benfica B at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
  22. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Benfica B win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
  23. 77′We said Benfica B at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
  24. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Feirense · On: Adriel Moraes · Off: Guilherme Meira Ferreira Alves
  25. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Feirense · On: Mohamed Diaby · Off: Diogo Mendes
  26. 83′We said Benfica B at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–83–8
  27. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Benfica B win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  28. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Benfica B · On: Felipe de Almeida Lima · Off: Bernardes
  29. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Feirense · On: Tiago Castro · Off: Pedro Pinto
  30. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Feirense · On: Alexandre Guedes · Off: Luís Teixeira Pinto
  31. 90′We said Benfica B at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  32. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Benfica B · On: Tomás Soares · Off: Nuno Miguel Madeira Fernandes Felix
  33. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Feirense
  34. FTFULL TIME Feirense 0–0 Benfica B
  35. FTFeirense 0–0 Benfica B · Benfica B win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Benfica B just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Feirense 35%, draw 27%, Benfica B 38%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Feirense v Benfica BBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Feirense win35%
Draw27%
Benfica B win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueEstádio Marcolino de Castro

RefereeDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva

Line-ups

Feirense

3-4-3

Benfica B

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Feirense

Benfica B

13Days since last match12

Last match: 11 Oct · Segunda Liga

Last match: 12 Oct · Segunda Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Benfica B7+313
18Feirense7−81

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Feirense

3-4-3

26 Diego Altube

14 Pedro Pinto

4 Antonio Leal

40 João Queirós

20 João Oliveira

77 Gui Meira

6 Diogo Mendes

16 André Lopes

25 Henrique Pereira

9 J. Monteiro

90 Luisinho

Coach · Rui Ferreira

Substitutes

80 · Adriel

30 · Peter Adejimi

24 · M. Diaby

8 · Gui Santos

15 · Diego Moreno

1 · Francisco Meixedo

47 · Piri

3 · Kaiquy

23 · Pedro Henrique

27 · Tiago Castro

5 · Osasumwen Bolaji Aigbe

19 · Alexandre Guedes

Benfica B

4-3-3

51 A. Voitinovičius

78 D. Soares

55 João Carvalho Fonseca

94 Rui Silva

52 João Capucho

76 R. Quintas

60 Nuno Félix

91 Francisco Silva

77 Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira

74 O. Tome

54 Francisco Neto

Coach · Nelson Veríssimo

Substitutes

87 · Peter Edokpolor

75 · L. Martins

85 · Martim Maria Ferreira

81 · Stevan Manuel

53 · Tiago Rodrigues

56 · Felipe Lima

79 · T. Soares

80 · G. Sobral

63 · Guilherme gaspar

93 · diego coelho

Our number · benfica b winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
38% The market35%
Us38%
Market35%

We make Benfica B a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Feirense v Benfica B1.19 – 1.25
Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 14 AugW0 D0 L6 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 1 v 1318 v 5
The market · Benfica B win35% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 13:36
Our probability · Benfica B win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Feirense win35%36%−1
Draw27%29%−2
Benfica B win38%35%+3
Over 2.5 goals44%48%−4
Both teams to score49%53%−4
Over 1.5 goals70%71%−1
Over 3.5 goals23%28%−5
Feirense or draw62%65%−3
Feirense clean sheet29%––
Benfica B clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%
0123450 8.7 11.2 6.9 2.9 1 10.5 12.7 8.0 3.4 2 6.1 7.6 4.8 3 2.4 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Feirense down, Benfica B across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.70
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsBEN 3–0 FEI · FEI 0–2 BEN · BEN 0–1 FEI · FEI 2–3 BEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 14 Aug

FEIRENSE

LLLLLL0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2

BENFICA B

WDLLWW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Lusitânia Lourosa7+717
2Sporting CP B7+415
3Farense7+714
4Penafiel7+713
5Benfica B7+313
6Academica7012
7Tondela7+212
8Vizela8011
9União de Leiria7+110
10Leixoes7+110
11Portimonense7−110
12AVS7+19
13Chaves8−78
14FC Porto B7−87
15Felgueiras 19327−26
16Torreense7−36
17Amarante7−45
18Feirense7−81

The competition's standings before kick-off.