Farense v Penafiel

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Farense win at 43%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Farense 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–29
3. 1′KICK-OFF Farense v Penafiel
4. 3′We said Farense at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–58
5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Farense 0–1 Penafiel
6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Farense win: 43% at kick-off, 19% now
7. 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Penafiel win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Farense win 42%)
8. 5′Penafiel score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–58
9. 8′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Pedro Sá · Penafiel
10. 11′We said Farense at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–12–83
11. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Farense 0–2 Penafiel
12. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Farense win: 43% at kick-off, 5% now
13. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Nelson Oliveira · Farense
14. 12′Penafiel find the net on 11′. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–83
15. 13′We said Farense at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–3 · 1–4–95
16. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Farense 0–3 Penafiel
17. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Farense win: 43% at kick-off, 1% now
18. 15′A goal for Penafiel on 14′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–4–95
19. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 1–3–97
20. 37′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 3–8–89
21. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Farense 1–3 Penafiel
22. 40′Farense score on 38′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 2–8–90
23. 43′GOAL DISALLOWED · 43' Farense
24. 45′SECOND HALF Farense 0–3 Penafiel
25. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Farense · On: Joseph N'Duquidi · Off: Claudio Falcão
26. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Farense · On: Bruno Miguel Vicente dos Santos · Off: Nelson Oliveira
27. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Farense · On: Gabriel Barbosa · Off: Joao·Resende
28. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Farense
29. 50′HALF-TIME Farense 0–3 Penafiel
30. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Penafiel · On: francisco varela · Off: Juanda Fuentes
31. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Sarpreet Singh · Farense
32. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Farense 1–3 Penafiel
33. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Farense · On: Derick Poloni · Off: toni herrero
34. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Farense · On: Miguel menino · Off: Sarpreet Singh
35. 68′Farense score on 65′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–3–97
36. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Penafiel · On: Antonio David Álvarez Rey · Off: Ricardo Schutte
37. 78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Farense
38. 81′Farense are down to ten from 78′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–3 · 0–1–99
39. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Penafiel · On: Joao Miguel · Off: Jaime Sánchez
40. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Penafiel · On: Claudio Mendes · Off: Max Svensson
41. 87′5 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
42. 87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Farense 1–4 Penafiel
43. 89′Penafiel find the net on 88′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
44. 90′Penafiel ahead on 87′ through Claudio Mendes. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
45. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Farense
46. 95′1–4 at the end. Our 43% on Farense misses, and the record keeps it. 1–4 · 0–0–100
47. FTFULL TIME Farense 1–4 Penafiel
48. FTFarense 1–4 Penafiel · Farense win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.