Farense v Feirense prediction · Segunda Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Farense 2–1 Feirense FARENSE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Farense win~~44%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.311

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Farense win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Farense was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
1′KICK-OFF Farense v Feirense
5′Much as we predicted: Farense was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
11′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Feirense
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Farense 1–0 Feirense
32′⚽ GOAL · 29' Farense 1–0 Feirense · Gonçalo Silva
38′29′ and it is 1–0: Gonçalo Silva on the scoresheet for Farense. 1–0 · 76–18–5
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Farense win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Farense win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
39′29′ and it is 1–0: Gonçalo Silva on the scoresheet for Farense. 1–0 · 77–18–5
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Farense win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Farense win: 44% at kick-off, 40% now
45′HALF-TIME Farense 1–0 Feirense
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Farense win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
45′SECOND HALF Farense 1–0 Feirense
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Farense 2–0 Feirense · Gonçalo Silva
52′⚽ GOAL · 50' Farense 2–0 Feirense
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Farense
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Feirense · On: Pedro Henrique de Oliveira da Silva · Off: Henrique Pereira Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Feirense · On: Diogo Mendes · Off: Luiz Gustavo Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Feirense · On: Alexandre Guedes · Off: Guilherme Meira Ferreira Alves Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Feirense · On: Jair Monteiro · Off: Antonio Leal Mateos Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Feirense · On: Tiago Castro · Off: Mohamed Diaby Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Farense · On: Derick Poloni · Off: Nelson Oliveira Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Farense · On: Gabriel Barbosa · Off: Joao·Resende Corrected
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Farense 2–1 Feirense · Sarpreet Singh
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Farense · On: Miguel menino · Off: Mattheus de Andrade Gama Oliveira Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Farense · On: Joseph N'Duquidi · Off: Gonçalo Silva Corrected
83′⚽ GOAL · 80' Farense 2–1 Feirense · Jair Monteiro
95′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Farense · On: Lucas Caetano D'Agrella · Off: Sarpreet Singh Corrected
FTFULL TIME Farense 2–1 Feirense
FTFarense 2–1 Feirense · Farense win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Farense win44%

Draw29%

Feirense win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueEstádio de São Luís

RefereeAntonio Nobre

Line-ups

Farense

4-3-3

Feirense

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Farense

Feirense

7Days since last match28

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Farense	6	+6	11
18	Feirense	6	−7	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Farense

4-3-3

97 F. Buntic

78 Alex Pinto

44 N. Zolotic

37 G. Silva

22 T. Herrero

27 Mattheus

29 Claudio Falcao

10 S. Singh

17 A. Candeias

11 N. Oliveira

7 J. Resende

Coach · Jose de Almeida

Substitutes

1 · J. Tannander

3 · L. D'Agrella

5 · R. Da Rocha Borges

6 · Derick Poloni

8 · M. Menino

9 · Gabriel Barbosa

15 · J. Nduquidi

18 · Cuba

19 · L. Oliveira

43 · Dario Miranda

88 · Rafinha

99 · E. Semedo

Feirense

3-4-3

26 D. Altube

14 P. Pinto

4 A. Leal

40 J. Queiros

2 L. Gustavo

77 Gui Meira

24 Diaby Momo

16 A. Lopes

20 Jojo

25 H. Pereira

90 Luisinho

Coach · Mario Nunes

Substitutes

1 · F. Meixedo

3 · Kaiquy

6 · D. Mendes

8 · G. Santos

9 · J. Monteiro

15 · D. Moreno

19 · A. Guedes

23 · P. H. de Oliveira da Silva

27 · T. Castro

Our number · farense winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

44% The market55%

Us44%

~~Market~~55%

We make Farense a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · farense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Farense win	44%	55%	−11
Draw	29%	26%	+3
Feirense win	27%	19%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	35%	45%	−9
Both teams to score	41%	46%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	62%	69%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	17%	24%	−8
Farense or draw	73%	81%	−8
Farense clean sheet	41%	–	–
Feirense clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 12.0 11.0 4.9 1 14.8 12.9 5.9 2 8.9 8.0 3.6 3 3.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Farense down, Feirense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,599 Segunda Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Farense at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Feirense away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Farense, 0.90 for Feirense. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FAR 0–1 FEI · FEI 0–0 FAR · FEI 1–2 FAR · FAR 0–0 FEI

Form · last six in Segunda Liga

FARENSE

WWDLDW2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 4–0

FEIRENSE

DLLLLL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	+7	16
2	Sporting CP B	7	+4	15
3	Penafiel	7	+7	13
4	Tondela	7	+2	12
5	Farense	6	+6	11
6	Vizela	7	+1	11
7	União de Leiria	6	+3	10
8	Benfica B	6	+2	10
9	Leixoes	7	+1	10
10	Portimonense	7	−1	10
11	AVS	7	+1	9
12	Academica	6	−2	9
13	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
14	Felgueiras 1932	6	−1	6
15	Torreense	7	−3	6
16	Amarante	7	−4	5
17	Chaves	6	−8	4
18	Feirense	6	−7	1