Chaves v Vizela prediction · Segunda Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

Chaves 2–1 Vizela CHAVES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chaves win~~36%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.611

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.636

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chaves win at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chaves 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
1′KICK-OFF Chaves v Vizela
26′We said Chaves at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–22–67
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Chaves 0–1 Vizela
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Chaves win: 36% at kick-off, 11% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Vizela win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Chaves win 33%)
28′A goal for Vizela on 27′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–22–67
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 10–22–68
35′We said Chaves at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Chaves
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Vizela
45′SECOND HALF Chaves 0–1 Vizela
48′HALF-TIME Chaves 0–1 Vizela
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Chaves win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
53′8 shots for Chaves, 2 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 6–21–74
59′We said Chaves at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
64′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Chaves
67′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Chaves · On: Pedro Pelágio · Off: Aílson Tavares
67′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Chaves · On: João Teixeira · Off: Gilberto García
68′Chaves have had 13 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–81
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chaves · On: Roberto · Off: Aarón Romero
77′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chaves · On: Marcos André Paulino Maia · Off: Andre Rodrigues
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Vizela · On: Neto · Off: Angel Bastunov
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Vizela · On: Natanael Ntolla · Off: Yassin Fortune
79′16 shots for Chaves, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 1–11–88
80′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Pedro Pelágio · Chaves
84′20 shots for Chaves, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 0–7–93
85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Vizela
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Chaves 1–1 Vizela
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Vizela win 94%)
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Chaves · On: Junior Armando Mendes · Off: Ricardo Alves
88′Chaves score on 86′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 5–90–5
90′85′: Junior Armando Mendes on the scoresheet for Chaves, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 4–93–4
95′We said Chaves at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Chaves 2–1 Vizela
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Chaves win: 36% at kick-off, 99% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Chaves win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
96′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 99–1–0
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Chaves
97′Chaves find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
97′2–1 at the end. Our 36% on Chaves comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Chaves 2–1 Vizela
FTChaves 2–1 Vizela · Chaves win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Chaves just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Chaves 36%, draw 28%, Vizela 36%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Chaves v VizelaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Chaves win36%

Draw28%

Vizela win36%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:45

RoundMatchday 8

VenueEstádio Engenheiro Branco Teixeira

RefereeMárcio Torres

Line-ups

Chaves

4-3-3

Vizela

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chaves

Vizela

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Vizela	7	+1	11
17	Chaves	7	−8	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chaves

4-3-3

1 João Valido

23 Léo Alabá

34 Ricardo Alves

14 N. Araújo

3 Aarón Romero

42 Aílson Tavares

19 Gilberto García

80 mohamed fofana

10 André Rodrigues

18 Wilson Tavares

7 R. Esajas

Coach · Vitor Martins

Substitutes

99 · GB

27 · J. Mendes

17 · Roberto

9 · Marcos Maia

16 · D. Yearwood

11 · Pedro Pelágio

8 · João Teixeira

2 · A. Herbert

33 · Tiago Simões

29 · M. Tounkara

88 · M. Gudžulić

13 · I. Vázquez

Vizela

4-2-3-1

1 Antonio Gomis

77 Jójó

4 J. Rhyner

55 A. Hristov

26 L. Mina

8 A. Bastunov

6 Giovani Bamba

95 A. Traoré

24 H. Mörschel

36 M. Lacava

23 Y. Fortuné

Coach · Ronald Ramírez

Substitutes

96 · A. Adamu

99 · A. Carter

70 · C. Cañozales

22 · Lucas Antañón

9 · Manu Garrido

31 · Neto

11 · N. Thio

13 · Luís Rocha

92 · Pedro Souza

19 · A. Vulić

3 · jose gonzalez

Our number · chaves winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

36% The market35%

Us36%

~~Market~~35%

We make Chaves a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chaves v Vizela~~1.17 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 11~~17 v 8

~~The market · Chaves win~~35% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chaves win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chaves win	36%	35%	+1
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Vizela win	36%	36%	0
Over 2.5 goals	41%	49%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	67%	72%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−7
Chaves or draw	64%	64%	0
Chaves clean sheet	31%	–	–
Vizela clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.6 11.4 6.5 2.6 1 11.5 12.9 7.6 3.0 2 6.7 7.7 4.4 3 2.6 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chaves down, Vizela across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,603 Segunda Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chaves at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vizela away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Chaves, 1.16 for Vizela. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 18:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~VIZ 3–2 CHA · CHA 1–0 VIZ · CHA 1–2 VIZ · VIZ 0–1 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 15 Aug

CHAVES

LDLWLD0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 1–1

VIZELA

LDWWDL0–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	7	+7	17
2	Sporting CP B	7	+4	15
3	Farense	7	+7	14
4	Penafiel	7	+7	13
5	Benfica B	7	+3	13
6	Academica	7	0	12
7	Tondela	7	+2	12
8	Vizela	7	+1	11
9	União de Leiria	7	+1	10
10	Leixoes	7	+1	10
11	Portimonense	7	−1	10
12	AVS	7	+1	9
13	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
14	Felgueiras 1932	7	−2	6
15	Torreense	7	−3	6
16	Amarante	7	−4	5
17	Chaves	7	−8	5
18	Feirense	7	−8	1