Benfica B v Felgueiras 1932 prediction · Segunda Liga

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 20:30

Benfica B 1–0 Felgueiras 1932 BENFICA B WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Benfica B win~~42%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.509

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.544

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Benfica B win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Benfica B 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
5′Little has changed for our model: Benfica B 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
32′Benfica B find the net on 33′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
35′We said Benfica B at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–8
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 37% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Benfica B win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
44′🟥 RED CARD · 43' Tiago Ventura da Silva · Felgueiras 1932
45′🟥 RED CARD · 45' Tiago Ventura da Silva · Felgueiras 1932
45′SECOND HALF Benfica B 1–0 Felgueiras 1932
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Benfica B
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Felgueiras 1932 · On: Filipe Cruz · Off: Henrique Manuel Neiva De Almeida Martins
61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Felgueiras 1932
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Benfica B · On: Francisco Silva · Off: Anísio Cabral
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Benfica B · On: Peter Edokpolor · Off: Olivio Tomé
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Benfica B · On: Francisco Neto · Off: Tiago Freitas Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Felgueiras 1932 · On: Michel Costa · Off: Rodrigo Santos Ribeiro
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Felgueiras 1932 · On: Beni Jetour · Off: Francisco Paulo Franco Franca
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Felgueiras 1932
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Benfica B · On: Stevan Pedro Dores Manuel · Off: Nuno Miguel Madeira Fernandes Felix
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Felgueiras 1932 · On: Tiago Leite · Off: Lucas da Costa Duarte
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Felgueiras 1932 · On: Adson Samuel Nunes dos Chaves · Off: Joao Reis Pinto
FTFULL TIME Benfica B 1–0 Felgueiras 1932
FTBenfica B 1–0 Felgueiras 1932 · Benfica B win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

Benfica B win42%

Draw27%

Felgueiras 1932 win31%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 18:00

VenueCaixa Futebol Campus

RefereePedro Miguel Torres Ramalho

Line-ups

Benfica B

4-3-3

Felgueiras 1932

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Benfica B

Felgueiras 1932

31Days since last match30

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Benfica B	6	+2	10
14	Felgueiras 1932	6	−1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Benfica B

4-3-3

50 Diogo Ferreira

78 D. Soares

55 João Carvalho Fonseca

33 Gabriel Indio

62 J. Neto

76 R. Quintas

60 Nuno Félix

88 Tiago Freitas

77 Gonçalo Carvalho Moreira

72 A. Cabral

74 O. Tome

Coach · Nelson Veríssimo

Substitutes

81 · Stevan Manuel

79 · T. Soares

87 · Peter Edokpolor

91 · Francisco Silva

71 · F. Coletta

52 · João Capucho

85 · Martim Maria Ferreira

94 · Rui Silva

93 · diego coelho

56 · Felipe Lima

54 · Francisco Neto

80 · G. Sobral

Felgueiras 1932

4-4-2

14 Mateus Pasinato

70 B. Ouacharaf

3 João Pinto

15 Armando Lopes

23 Afonso de Freitas

20 Rodrigo Santos Ribeiro

6 Henrique Martins

77 Francisco França

80 Tiago Ventura da Silva

7 Mario Rivas

19 Lucas da Costa Duarte

Coach · Moreno

Substitutes

25 · Felipe Scheibig

16 · Beni Jetour

95 · Nuno Namora

17 · Filipe Cruz

9 · Tiago Rafael Fernandes Leiite

10 · Michel Costa

5 · Afonso Peixoto

96 · Martim Duarte

13 · Joãozinho

24 · Rui Rampa

87 · Adson Samuel

Our number · benfica b winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 17:18 · locked at kick-off

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Benfica B a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · benfica b win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Benfica B win	42%	40%	+2
Draw	27%	29%	−2
Felgueiras 1932 win	31%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−2
Benfica B or draw	69%	69%	0
Benfica B clean sheet	33%	–	–
Felgueiras 1932 clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.5 9.7 5.4 2.0 1 11.6 12.6 7.1 2.7 2 7.6 8.5 4.8 3 3.4 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Benfica B down, Felgueiras 1932 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,602 Segunda Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Benfica B at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Felgueiras 1932 away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Benfica B, 1.12 for Felgueiras 1932. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BEN 4–2 FEL · FEL 2–1 BEN · FEL 3–3 BEN · BEN 2–0 FEL

Form · last six in Segunda Liga

BENFICA B

WWDLLW1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

FELGUEIRAS 1932

DDDWLL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	7	+7	17
2	Sporting CP B	7	+4	15
3	Farense	7	+7	14
4	Penafiel	7	+7	13
5	Tondela	7	+2	12
6	Academica	7	0	12
7	Vizela	7	+1	11
8	Benfica B	6	+2	10
9	União de Leiria	7	+1	10
10	Leixoes	7	+1	10
11	Portimonense	7	−1	10
12	AVS	7	+1	9
13	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
14	Felgueiras 1932	6	−1	6
15	Torreense	7	−3	6
16	Amarante	7	−4	5
17	Chaves	7	−8	5
18	Feirense	7	−8	1