Benfica B v Chaves prediction · Segunda Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Benfica BDrawChaves

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Benfica B 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Benfica B are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Benfica B 43%, draw 26%, Chaves 32%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Benfica B v ChavesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Benfica B win43%

Draw26%

Chaves win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueBenfica Campus

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Benfica B

Chaves

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Segunda Liga

Last match: 23 Oct · Segunda Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Benfica B	8	+3	14
13	Chaves	8	−7	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · benfica b winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Benfica B a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Benfica B v Chaves~~1.43 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 8~~6 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Benfica B win	43%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Chaves win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Benfica B or draw	68%	–	–
Benfica B clean sheet	31%	–	–
Chaves clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.3 8.8 5.2 2.1 1 10.6 12.2 7.3 2.9 2 7.5 8.8 5.2 2.1 3 3.6 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Benfica B down, Chaves across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,608 Segunda Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Benfica B at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chaves away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Benfica B, 1.19 for Chaves. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BEN 1–0 CHA · CHA 1–1 BEN · CHA 1–2 BEN · BEN 1–0 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 21 Aug

BENFICA B

DLLWWD1–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

CHAVES

DLWLDW2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sporting CP B	8	+7	18
2	Lusitânia Lourosa	7	+7	17
3	Penafiel	8	+10	16
4	Academica	8	+4	15
5	Farense	8	+4	14
6	Benfica B	8	+3	14
7	Tondela	7	+2	12
8	Vizela	8	0	11
9	União de Leiria	7	+1	10
10	Leixoes	8	−3	10
11	Portimonense	8	−4	10
12	AVS	7	+1	9
13	Chaves	8	−7	8
14	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
15	Felgueiras 1932	7	−2	6
16	Torreense	7	−3	6
17	Amarante	7	−4	5
18	Feirense	8	−8	2