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AVS v Tondela
AVSTondelaSegunda Liga · SUN 25 OCT · Estádio do CD das Aves
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
AVS are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: AVS 39%, draw 27%, Tondela 34%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
AVS win39%Tondela win34%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00
RoundMatchday 8
VenueEstádio do CD das Aves
RefereeDiogo Teixeira Araujo
Match timeline
All events
AVSMINTondelaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
AVS
Tondela
Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal
Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | +1 | 9 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make AVS a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 27% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVS win | 39% | 27% | +12 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | −1 |
| Tondela win | 34% | 45% | −11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 26% | −4 |
| AVS or draw | 66% | 55% | +11 |
| AVS clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
| Tondela clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 16 Aug
AVS
TONDELA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sporting CP B | 8 | +7 | 18 |
| 2 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 |  Penafiel | 8 | +10 | 16 |
| 4 |  Academica | 8 | +4 | 15 |
| 5 |  Farense | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Benfica B | 8 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 8 |  Vizela | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 |  União de Leiria | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Leixoes | 8 | −3 | 10 |
| 11 |  Portimonense | 8 | −4 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 |  Chaves | 8 | −7 | 8 |
| 14 |  FC Porto B | 7 | −8 | 7 |
| 15 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | −2 | 6 |
| 16 |  Torreense | 7 | −3 | 6 |
| 17 |  Amarante | 7 | −4 | 5 |
| 18 |  Feirense | 8 | −8 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.