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Amarante v Portimonense

Amarante

1–2Full time

Portimonense

Segunda Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Municipal de Amarante

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Amarante 1–2 Portimonense AMARANTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Amarante win~~44%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.758

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.671

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Amarante win at 44%.
3′Much as we predicted: Amarante was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–29
3′KICK-OFF Amarante v Portimonense
38′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Amarante
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Amarante win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Amarante win 34%)
45′SECOND HALF Amarante 0–0 Portimonense
46′HALF-TIME Amarante 0–0 Portimonense
46′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jarleysom Ferreira de Amurim · Portimonense
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Portimonense · On: Edney · Off: Diogo Cabral Corrected
51′We said Amarante at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–45–23
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Yanis da Rocha · Portimonense
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Portimonense · On: Welinton Junior · Off: Samuel Yépié Yépié Corrected
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Amarante 0–1 Portimonense
75′⚽ GOAL · 65' Amarante 0–2 Portimonense · Dânio Djassi
75′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Edney · Portimonense
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Amarante · On: Arome Emmanuel Idache · Off: Joao filipe Corrected
79′⚽ GOAL · 75' Amarante 0–2 Portimonense · Welinton Junior
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Portimonense · On: Joao casimiro · Off: Yanis da Rocha Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Amarante · On: Ian Custódio dos Anjos · Off: Ruben Alves Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Amarante · On: Kenneth Ikugar · Off: Simão Silva Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Amarante · On: Leandro Ferreira · Off: Ricardo joao Corrected
88′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Tiago Filipe Prazeres Ferreira · Portimonense
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Amarante 1–2 Portimonense · Welinton Junior
98′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Portimonense · On: Thauan Lara dos Santos · Off: Tiago Filipe Prazeres Ferreira Corrected
98′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Portimonense · On: Zinho · Off: Dânio Djassi Corrected
98′⚽ GOAL · 95' Amarante 1–2 Portimonense
FTFULL TIME Amarante 1–2 Portimonense
FTAmarante 1–2 Portimonense · Amarante win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Amarante win44%

Draw27%

Portimonense win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Municipal de Amarante

Referee · Flavio Miguel Gomes Azevedo Duarte

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Amarante

3-4-3

65 Didi

3 F. Mendes

4 J. Filipe

2 G. Cunha

28 D. Pereira

26 A. Zangre

8 Tokinho Doria

5 Joao Ricardo

78 B. Silva

91 R. Almeida

88 R. Alves

Coach · Jorge Pinto

Substitutes

1 · R. Flores

6 · R. Guedes

7 · L. Ferreira

9 · F. Cardoso

12 · Lawrence

14 · Arome

15 · R. Beirao

16 · R. Carvalho

23 · K. Ikugar

36 · Ian Custodio

51 · D. Fernandes

85 · Nito

Portimonense

3-4-3

1 Dudu

6 S. Neves

4 Italo Cabelinho

3 Jarleysom

18 Mamede

15 Xavier

21 Y. da Rocha

17 J. Reis

11 Duda

9 S. Yepie Yepie

7 D. Djassi

Coach · Alex

Substitutes

2 · Edney

5 · G. Tunguliiadi

8 · J. D. Pancadas Casimiro

36 · Thauan Lara

38 · Wermeson

65 · Wellington Santana

73 · M. Junior

79 · Paulinho

80 · F. Favero

88 · Jader

93 · Welinton Junior

99 · Zinho Hofmann

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Amarante

3-4-3

65 Didi

3 F. Mendes

4 J. Filipe

2 G. Cunha

28 D. Pereira

26 A. Zangre

8 Tokinho Doria

5 Joao Ricardo

78 B. Silva

91 R. Almeida

88 R. Alves

Coach · Jorge Pinto

Substitutes

1 · R. Flores

6 · R. Guedes

7 · L. Ferreira

9 · F. Cardoso

12 · Lawrence

14 · Arome

15 · R. Beirao

16 · R. Carvalho

23 · K. Ikugar

36 · Ian Custodio

51 · D. Fernandes

85 · Nito

Portimonense

3-4-3

1 Dudu

6 S. Neves

4 Italo Cabelinho

3 Jarleysom

18 Mamede

15 Xavier

21 Y. da Rocha

17 J. Reis

11 Duda

9 S. Yepie Yepie

7 D. Djassi

Coach · Alex

Substitutes

2 · Edney

5 · G. Tunguliiadi

8 · J. D. Pancadas Casimiro

36 · Thauan Lara

38 · Wermeson

65 · Wellington Santana

73 · M. Junior

79 · Paulinho

80 · F. Favero

88 · Jader

93 · Welinton Junior

99 · Zinho Hofmann

Our number · amarante winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

44% The market36%

Us44%

~~Market~~36%

We make Amarante a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · amarante win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Amarante win	44%	36%	+8
Draw	27%	31%	−5
Portimonense win	30%	33%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	44%	40%	+4
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	67%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	21%	+2
Amarante or draw	70%	67%	+4
Amarante clean sheet	34%	–	–
Portimonense clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.7 9.5 5.0 1 12.0 12.5 6.8 2.5 2 8.1 8.6 4.6 3 3.7 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Amarante down, Portimonense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,595 Segunda Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Amarante at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Portimonense away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Amarante, 1.08 for Portimonense. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:39. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Segunda Liga

AMARANTE

LLDWLD1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 2–2

PORTIMONENSE

WWDLLL1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	6	+7	16
2	Penafiel	7	+7	13
3	Sporting CP B	6	+2	12
4	Farense	6	+6	11
5	Vizela	6	+3	11
6	União de Leiria	6	+3	10
7	Leixoes	6	+2	10
8	Benfica B	6	+2	10
9	AVS	7	+1	9
10	Tondela	6	+1	9
11	Academica	6	−2	9
12	Portimonense	6	−2	7
13	Felgueiras 1932	6	−1	6
14	Torreense	6	−2	6
15	Amarante	6	−3	5
16	Chaves	6	−8	4
17	FC Porto B	6	−9	4
18	Feirense	6	−7	1