Academica v Leixoes prediction · Segunda Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Academica 4–0 Leixoes ACADEMICA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Academica win~~40%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.550

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.690

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Academica win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Academica 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–35
1′KICK-OFF Academica v Leixoes
4′🟥 RED CARD · 4' Leixoes
6′Leixoes are down to ten from 4′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 39–27–34
14′We said Academica at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–20–13
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Academica 1–0 Leixoes
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Academica win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
16′Academica score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
25′Academica find the net on 22′. 1–0 · 68–21–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–11
36′We said Academica at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Academica win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Academica 2–0 Leixoes
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Academica win: 40% at kick-off, 91% now
40′Academica ahead on 36′ through Jean Sinisterra. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′A goal for Academica on 45′. 2–0 · 92–6–2
45′HALF-TIME Academica 2–0 Leixoes
46′SECOND HALF Academica 2–0 Leixoes
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Leixoes · On: João Assunção · Off: José Manuel Bica Reis
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Leixoes · On: Semeu Commey · Off: Salvador Agra
50′We said Academica at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Academica 3–0 Leixoes
51′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 99–1–0
55′Amadou Coundoul scores for Academica on 49′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
61′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Academica
63′We said Academica at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Academica win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
68′🟨 YELLOW · 61' João Assunção · Leixoes
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Academica · On: Rui Gomes · Off: Kevin Zohi
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Academica · On: Marcos Paulo · Off: Leandro Silva
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Academica · On: Hélder Lopes · Off: Kaka
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Academica · On: Ilies Faure · Off: Amadou Coundoul
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Leixoes · On: Arthur Baggio · Off: Rafael Barbosa
82′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Academica 4–0 Leixoes
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Leixoes · On: Luccas Paraizo · Off: Bryan Rochez
82′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Arthur Baggio · Leixoes
86′81′: Jean Sinisterra on the scoresheet for Academica, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Academica · On: Hugo Nunes · Off: Jean Sinisterra
91′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Afonso Rodrigues · Academica
FTFULL TIME Academica 4–0 Leixoes
FTAcademica 4–0 Leixoes · Academica win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Academica are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Academica 40%, draw 26%, Leixoes 35%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Academica v LeixoesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Academica win40%

Draw26%

Leixoes win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueEstádio Cidade de Coimbra

RefereeJoao Pinheiro

Line-ups

Academica

4-3-3

Leixoes

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Academica

Leixoes

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Academica	7	0	12
10	Leixoes	7	+1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Academica

4-3-3

12 Victor Braga

2 Xabier Sanchez

3 Ricardo Teixeira

4 Guilherme Willian da Silva

15 Kaka

25 L. Pierre

5 Leandro Silva

20 J. Sinisterra

8 K. Zohi

92 A. Coundoul

19 Afonso Rodrigues

Coach · António Barbosa

Substitutes

1 · Nuno Macedo

13 · Kauan

54 · Ni

22 · Hélder Lopes

60 · João Oliveira

17 · Marcos Paulo

46 · H. Nunes

23 · Rui Gomes

9 · Martim Tavares

7 · Alioune Mané

10 · I. Faure

98 · Carlos Alves

Leixoes

4-4-2

51 I. Stefanović

77 Paulinho

63 H. Faria

4 Matheus Costa

30 Serif Nhaga

7 Salvador Agra

22 Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo

6 A. Balde

10 Rafael Barbosa

9 Bica

35 B. Rochez

Coach · Fangueiro

Substitutes

15 · Simãozinho

17 · Arthur Baggio

80 · João Assunção

88 · Rúben Pina

71 · Kaique

33 · Luccas Feitosa

26 · Caio Secco

44 · S. Commey

14 · Alysson Silva

2 · Fernando Fonseca

75 · Jamerson

79 · Roka

Our number · academica winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market32%

Us40%

~~Market~~32%

We make Academica a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Academica v Leixoes~~1.38 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 14 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~6 v 10

~~The market · Academica win~~32% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Academica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Academica win	40%	32%	+8
Draw	26%	29%	−3
Leixoes win	35%	39%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Academica or draw	65%	61%	+4
Academica clean sheet	28%	–	–
Leixoes clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.0 9.2 5.7 2.4 1 9.9 12.1 7.8 3.3 2 6.7 8.4 5.3 2.3 3 3.1 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Academica down, Leixoes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,604 Segunda Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Academica at home: 0.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Leixoes away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Academica, 1.27 for Leixoes. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ACA 1–0 LEI · LEI 2–1 ACA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda Liga this season · since 14 Aug

ACADEMICA

WWLLLW1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 2–0

LEIXOES

WLWWDL1–0 · 2–4 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lusitânia Lourosa	7	+7	17
2	Sporting CP B	7	+4	15
3	Farense	7	+7	14
4	Penafiel	7	+7	13
5	Benfica B	7	+3	13
6	Academica	7	0	12
7	Tondela	7	+2	12
8	Vizela	8	0	11
9	União de Leiria	7	+1	10
10	Leixoes	7	+1	10
11	Portimonense	7	−1	10
12	AVS	7	+1	9
13	Chaves	8	−7	8
14	FC Porto B	7	−8	7
15	Felgueiras 1932	7	−2	6
16	Torreense	7	−3	6
17	Amarante	7	−4	5
18	Feirense	7	−8	1