Vitória SC v Maritimo prediction · Primeira Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 23:27

Vitória SC 5–0 Maritimo VITÓRIA SC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vitória SC win~~51%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.361

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.230

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Vitória SC win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Vitória SC was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
1′KICK-OFF Vitória SC v Maritimo
13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Lucas Furtado · Vitória SC
15′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Gustavo Silva · Vitória SC
19′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Gonçalo Nogueira · Vitória SC
24′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Toni Borevković · Vitória SC
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Raphael Guzzo · Maritimo
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Tomas Tavares · Maritimo
38′We published Vitória SC at 51%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–6
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Vitória SC 1–0 Maritimo
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Vitória SC win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
39′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
39′Vitória SC ahead on 38′ through Arnel Jakupović. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′HALF-TIME Vitória SC 1–0 Maritimo
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Maritimo · On: Simo Bouzaidi · Off: Tomas Tavares
46′SECOND HALF Vitória SC 1–0 Maritimo
48′We published Vitória SC at 51%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Vitória SC 2–0 Maritimo
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Vitória SC win: 51% at kick-off, 96% now
49′An own goal by Maritimo's Paulo Henrique on 48′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
60′60′: Oumar Camara on the scoresheet for Vitória SC, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Vitória SC 3–0 Maritimo · Oumar Camara
61′We published Vitória SC at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
62′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Rodri Andrade · Maritimo
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva · Vitória SC
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vitória SC · On: Victor Andersson · Off: Gustavo Silva
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vitória SC · On: Lohann Doucet · Off: Gonçalo Nogueira
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Maritimo · On: Ibrahim Akitunde Alani · Off: Raphael Guzzo
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Maritimo · On: Nilton Varela · Off: Maxime Dominguez
76′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Vitória SC 4–0 Maritimo
77′Vitória SC ahead on 76′ through Arnel Jakupović. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vitória SC · On: Alioune Ndoye · Off: Arnel Jakupović
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vitória SC · On: Yeimar Mosquera · Off: Oumar Camara Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Vitória SC · On: Alan de Souza Guimarães · Off: Fábio Samuel Amorim Silva
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Maritimo · On: Mons Rogeani Bassouamina · Off: Martín Tejón
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Maritimo · On: Maurice Boakye · Off: Adrián Butzke
90′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′Yeimar Mosquera scores for Vitória SC on 90′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Vitória SC 5–0 Maritimo
FTFULL TIME Vitória SC 5–0 Maritimo
FTVitória SC 5–0 Maritimo · Vitória SC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vitória SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vitória SC 51%, draw 24%, Maritimo 25%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Vitória SC v MaritimoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Vitória SC win51%

Draw24%

Maritimo win25%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:45

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEstádio D. Afonso Henriques

RefereeDiogo Rosa

Line-ups

Vitória SC

4-2-3-1

Maritimo

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vitória SC

Maritimo

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Maritimo	8	−5	8
15	Vitória SC	8	−5	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Vitória SC

4-2-3-1

98 Lucas Furtado

23 T. Strata

21 T. Borevković

5 A. Sidibé

13 João Mendes

8 Gonçalo Nogueira

16 Beni

7 O. Camara

20 Samu

11 Gustavo

9 A. Jakupovic

Coach · Tiago Margarido

Substitutes

10 · Alan

48 · O. Zych

4 · Óscar Rivas

29 · V. Ouotro

24 · A. Ndoye

15 · Y. Mosquera

19 · V. Andersson

44 · L. Doucet

2 · Miguel Maga

6 · M. Mitrović

17 · Miguel Nogueira

40 · Mohammed Kebdani

Maritimo

4-2-3-1

30 Fran Vieites

2 Igor Julião

44 Romain Correia

22 G. Szalai

23 Paulo Henrique

6 Rodrigo Andrade

14 Raphael Guzzo

15 Tomás Tavares

8 M. Dominguez

10 Martín Tejón

17 Adrián Butzke

Coach · M. van der Gaag

Substitutes

21 · I. Alani

1 · Gonçalo Tabuaço

27 · S. Bamba

12 · M. Bassouamina

11 · M. Diouri

4 · Rafael Fernandes

35 · B. Limbombe

5 · Nilton Varela

3 · N. Ogbeta

13 · Alfonso Pastor

90 · Maurice Osei Boakye

66 · I. Ayuma

Our number · vitória sc winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

51% The market61%

Us51%

~~Market~~61%

We make Vitória SC a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vitória SC v Maritimo~~1.57 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~15 v 11

~~The market · Vitória SC win~~61% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vitória SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vitória SC win	51%	61%	−10
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Maritimo win	25%	16%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Vitória SC or draw	75%	84%	−9
Vitória SC clean sheet	37%	–	–
Maritimo clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 7.4 8.3 3.9 1 12.6 11.4 5.9 2 9.4 9.2 4.6 3 5.0 4.8 2.4 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vitória SC down, Maritimo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,612 Primeira Liga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.6% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vitória SC at home: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Maritimo away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Vitória SC, 0.99 for Maritimo. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 20:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAR 1–2 VIT · VIT 1–0 MAR · MAR 0–1 VIT · VIT 2–1 MAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug

VITÓRIA SC

WLDLDL1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

MARITIMO

DLLLDL2–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	8	+16	24
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	8	+4	14
6	GIL Vicente	8	+2	14
7	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
8	Alverca	8	+1	11
9	SC Braga	8	−1	11
10	Estrela	8	−1	10
11	Maritimo	8	−5	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Famalicao	8	−1	7
14	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
15	Vitória SC	8	−5	5
16	Nacional	8	−9	4
17	Casa Pia	8	−14	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2