Sporting CP v Academico Viseu prediction · Primeira Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sporting CPDrawAcademico Viseu

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sporting CP 76%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting CP are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting CP 76%, draw 14%, Academico Viseu 10%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Sporting CP v Academico ViseuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sporting CP win76%

Draw14%

Academico Viseu win10%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEstádio José Alvalade

RefereeMiguel Bertolo Nogueira

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting CP

Academico Viseu

4Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
6	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sporting cp winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

76% The market76%

Us76%

~~Market~~76%

We make Sporting CP a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting CP v Academico Viseu~~2.69 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 14~~3 v 6

~~The market · Sporting CP win~~76% · ours 76%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting CP win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting CP win	76%	76%	0
Draw	14%	16%	−2
Academico Viseu win	10%	9%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	67%	64%	+3
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	83%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	46%	44%	+2
Sporting CP or draw	90%	91%	−1
Sporting CP clean sheet	45%	–	–
Academico Viseu clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.7%

0123450 3.0 3.1 1 8.7 6.4 2.8 2 10.7 8.6 3.5 3 9.4 7.4 3.0 4 6.4 5.0 2.0 5 3.6 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting CP down, Academico Viseu across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,616 Primeira Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Sporting CP at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Academico Viseu away: 1.75 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.69 goals for Sporting CP, 0.81 for Academico Viseu. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug

SPORTING CP

WWWDDW3–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 3–1

ACADEMICO VISEU

DLWWWW2–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	9	+17	27
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	9	+5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	+1	14
8	Alverca	9	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	−1	11
10	Estrela	9	−3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Maritimo	9	−10	8
14	Famalicao	8	−1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	−12	7
17	Nacional	8	−9	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2