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SC Braga v Sporting CP

SC Braga

1–3Full time

Sporting CP

Primeira Liga · FRI 9 OCT · Estádio Municipal de Braga

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 23:00

SC Braga 1–3 Sporting CP SPORTING CP WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting CP win~~48%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.409

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.548

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting CP win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sporting CP was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 29–24–48
1′KICK-OFF SC Braga v Sporting CP
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' SC Braga 1–0 Sporting CP
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' SC Braga 1–0 Sporting CP · Rui Silva
45′HALF-TIME SC Braga 1–0 Sporting CP
46′SECOND HALF SC Braga 1–0 Sporting CP
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sporting CP · On: Maximiliano Araujo · Off: Georgios Vagiannidis Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Sporting CP · On: Rodrigo Zalazar · Off: Silas Andersen Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Sporting CP · On: Luis Suárez · Off: Fotis Ioannidis Corrected
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' SC Braga 1–1 Sporting CP · Rui Silva
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' SC Braga 1–1 Sporting CP · Luis Suárez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' SC Braga · On: Gabriel Martínez Aguilera · Off: Gabriel Silva Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' SC Braga · On: Mario Dorgeles · Off: Denis Huseinbasic Corrected
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' SC Braga 1–2 Sporting CP · Luis Suárez
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' SC Braga 1–2 Sporting CP · Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' SC Braga · On: Tommy Marqués · Off: João Moutinho Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' SC Braga · On: Jonas Wind · Off: Pau Victor Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sporting CP · On: Flávio Gonçalves · Off: Nestory Irankunda Corrected
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' SC Braga 1–3 Sporting CP · Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' SC Braga 1–3 Sporting CP · Rodrigo Zalazar
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sporting CP · On: João Simões · Off: Rodrigo Zalazar Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SC Braga · On: Fra Navarro · Off: Adrian Bajrami Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Flávio Gonçalves · Sporting CP
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Sergio Barcia · SC Braga
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' SC Braga 1–4 Sporting CP · Rodrigo Zalazar
FTSC Braga 1–3 Sporting CP · Sporting CP win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SC Braga win29%

Draw23%

Sporting CP win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Two names emerge as Milan’s January prioritiesFootball Italia · 8 hours ago · AC Milan, Sporting CP

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 20:15

Venue · Estádio Municipal de Braga

Referee · Joao Pinheiro

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

SC Braga

3-4-2-1

31 Bernardo

22 Sergio Barcia

6 Vitor Carvalho

44 A. Bajrami

2 V. Gomez

29 Gorby

8 J. Moutinho

11 Gabriel Silva

23 D. Huseinbasic

21 R. Horta

10 P. Victor

Coach · Carlos Vicens

Substitutes

78 · J. Carvalho

14 · G. Lagerbielke

26 · B. Arrey-Mbi

7 · Travassos

50 · D. Rodrigues

20 · M. Dorgeles

77 · G. Martinez

34 · D. E. Tiknaz

16 · T. Marques

19 · J. Wind

9 · F. Navarro

17 · J. Milosevic

Sporting CP

4-3-3

1 R. Silva

22 I. Fresneda

72 E. Quaresma

25 G. Inacio

13 G. Vagiannidis

4 S. Andersen

5 S. Altimira

77 I. Doumbia

10 G. Catamo

7 F. Ioannidis

19 N. Irankunda

Coach · Rui Borges

Substitutes

30 · Kaique Pereira

20 · M. Araujo

55 · I. Ba

21 · Pedro Lima

8 · J. Simoes

73 · E. Felicissimo

58 · F. Goncalves

17 · R. Zalazar

97 · L. Suarez

9 · R. Nel

31 · Luis Guilherme

28 · J. Derry

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SC Braga

3-4-2-1

31 Bernardo

22 Sergio Barcia

6 Vitor Carvalho

44 A. Bajrami

2 V. Gomez

29 Gorby

8 J. Moutinho

11 Gabriel Silva

23 D. Huseinbasic

21 R. Horta

10 P. Victor

Coach · Carlos Vicens

Substitutes

78 · J. Carvalho

14 · G. Lagerbielke

26 · B. Arrey-Mbi

7 · Travassos

50 · D. Rodrigues

20 · M. Dorgeles

77 · G. Martinez

34 · D. E. Tiknaz

16 · T. Marques

19 · J. Wind

9 · F. Navarro

17 · J. Milosevic

Sporting CP

4-3-3

1 R. Silva

22 I. Fresneda

72 E. Quaresma

25 G. Inacio

13 G. Vagiannidis

4 S. Andersen

5 S. Altimira

77 I. Doumbia

10 G. Catamo

7 F. Ioannidis

19 N. Irankunda

Coach · Rui Borges

Substitutes

30 · Kaique Pereira

20 · M. Araujo

55 · I. Ba

21 · Pedro Lima

8 · J. Simoes

73 · E. Felicissimo

58 · F. Goncalves

17 · R. Zalazar

97 · L. Suarez

9 · R. Nel

31 · Luis Guilherme

28 · J. Derry

Our number · sporting cp winPublished 9 Oct 20:02

48% The market40%

Us48%

~~Market~~40%

We make Sporting CP a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sporting cp win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Braga win	29%	31%	−2
Draw	23%	29%	−7
Sporting CP win	48%	40%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	58%	45%	+13
Both teams to score	59%	52%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	80%	70%	+11
Over 3.5 goals	36%	25%	+11
SC Braga or draw	52%	60%	−8
SC Braga clean sheet	18%	–	–
Sporting CP clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.6 8.7 7.2 4.2 1 6.6 10.4 9.3 5.4 2.4 2 4.1 7.0 6.0 3.5 3 3.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Braga down, Sporting CP across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,602 Primeira Liga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Braga at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting CP away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for SC Braga, 1.74 for Sporting CP. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 20:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SCB 2–2 SPO · SPO 1–1 SCB · SPO 1–1 SCB · SCB 2–4 SPO

Form · last six in Primeira Liga

SC BRAGA

DWWLWD2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0

SPORTING CP

WWWWDD3–2 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	7	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	0	11
8	Estrela	7	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	0	8
10	Alverca	7	−2	8
11	Maritimo	7	−4	8
12	Moreirense	7	−6	8
13	Famalicao	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	−3	5
15	Nacional	7	−8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	−10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	−13	4
18	Estoril	7	−7	2