SC Braga v GIL Vicente prediction · Primeira Liga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 23:00

SC Braga 1–2 GIL Vicente SC BRAGA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC Braga win~~57%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.007

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.083

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SC Braga win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: SC Braga was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–20
1′KICK-OFF SC Braga v GIL Vicente
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Mohamed Kaba · GIL Vicente
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' SC Braga win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
36′We published SC Braga at 57%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' SC Braga 1–0 GIL Vicente
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' SC Braga win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
38′Pau Victor scores for SC Braga on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Luís Miguel Correia Pinto · GIL Vicente
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Jean-Baptiste Gorby · SC Braga
45′HALF-TIME SC Braga 1–0 GIL Vicente
45′SECOND HALF SC Braga 1–0 GIL Vicente
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' GIL Vicente · On: Walace França · Off: Mohamed Kaba
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' SC Braga · On: Victor Gómez · Off: Jonas Wind
51′49′: Walace França on the scoresheet for GIL Vicente, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 40–42–18
51′⚽ GOAL · 49' SC Braga 1–1 GIL Vicente · Walace França
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' SC Braga win: 57% at kick-off, 40% now
52′We said SC Braga at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–43–18
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was SC Braga win 82%)
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' SC Braga win: 57% at kick-off, 37% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Marvin Elimbi Gilbert · GIL Vicente
61′We said SC Braga at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–50–16
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' GIL Vicente · On: Tidjany Chabrol Toure · Off: Gil Pinto Martins
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' GIL Vicente · On: Jose Carlos Natario Ferreira · Off: Diogo Prioste
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' SC Braga · On: Demir Ege Tıknaz · Off: João Moutinho
67′We said SC Braga at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' SC Braga win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
73′72′: Diogo Martins Travassos puts it into the SC Braga net. 1–1 · 24–65–12
74′We said SC Braga at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 3–19–77
74′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–19–77
74′⚽ GOAL · 72' SC Braga 1–2 GIL Vicente · Diogo Martins Travassos (own goal)
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' SC Braga win: 57% at kick-off, 3% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' GIL Vicente win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 66%)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' SC Braga · On: Fra Navarro · Off: Vitor Carvalho
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' SC Braga · On: Gabriel Silva · Off: Diogo Martins Travassos
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' SC Braga · On: Denis Huseinbasic · Off: Jean-Baptiste Gorby
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' GIL Vicente · On: Joelson Fernandes · Off: Murilo Souza
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Victor Gómez · SC Braga
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Jose Carlos Natario Ferreira · GIL Vicente
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' GIL Vicente · On: Gonçalo Maia Pereira · Off: Andreas Lausen
96′SC Braga have had 16 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Ricardo Horta · SC Braga
FTFULL TIME SC Braga 1–2 GIL Vicente
FTSC Braga 1–2 GIL Vicente · SC Braga win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC Braga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Braga 57%, draw 23%, GIL Vicente 20%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on SC Braga v GIL VicenteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 05:16 · locked at kick-off

SC Braga win57%

Draw23%

GIL Vicente win20%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 20:15

RoundMatchday 2

VenueEstádio Municipal de Braga

RefereeGustavo Correia

Line-ups

SC Braga

3-4-2-1

GIL Vicente

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Braga

GIL Vicente

4Days since last match5

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 14 Oct · Taça de Portugal

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	GIL Vicente	7	+1	11
9	SC Braga	7	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SC Braga

3-4-2-1

31 Bernardo Fontes

14 G. Lagerbielke

6 Vitor Carvalho

44 A. Bajrami

7 Diogo Travassos

8 João Moutinho

29 J. Gorby

10 Pau Victor

21 Ricardo Horta

50 Diego Rodrigues

19 J. Wind

Coach · Carlos Vicens

Substitutes

22 · Sergio Barcia

20 · M. Dorgeles

34 · E. Tıknaz

11 · Gabriel Silva

9 · Fran Navarro

77 · Gabri Martínez

12 · Tiago Sá

23 · D. Huseinbašić

2 · Víctor Gómez

78 · João Carvalho

37 · A. Barišić

26 · B. Arrey-Mbi

GIL Vicente

4-2-3-1

30 Lucão

47 Ricardo Esgaio

4 M. Elimbi Gilbert

39 Jonathan Buatu

45 David Moreira

12 A. Lausen

86 Diogo Ferreira Prioste

77 Murilo

10 Santi García

20 Gil Pinto Martins

99 M. Kaba

Coach · Luís Pinto

Substitutes

16 · Gui Beleza

3 · Espigares

32 · M. Fernández

1 · A. Picornell

82 · Gonçalo Maia Pereira

11 · Joelson Fernandes

27 · A. Moreira

6 · Zé Carlos

94 · Samuel

2 · José Silva

7 · T. Touré

9 · Walace

Our number · sc braga winFirst published 17 Oct 05:16 · locked at kick-off

57% The market58%

Us57%

~~Market~~58%

We make SC Braga a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC Braga v GIL Vicente~~1.70 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 24 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 11~~9 v 7

~~The market · SC Braga win~~58% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SC Braga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Braga win	57%	58%	−1
Draw	23%	25%	−2
GIL Vicente win	20%	17%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	48%	0
Both teams to score	48%	48%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	28%	−2
SC Braga or draw	80%	83%	−3
SC Braga clean sheet	41%	–	–
GIL Vicente clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 7.1 7.2 3.1 1 13.1 10.8 5.1 2 10.7 9.5 4.3 3 6.1 5.4 2.4 4 2.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Braga down, GIL Vicente across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,611 Primeira Liga matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Braga at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). GIL Vicente away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for SC Braga, 0.90 for GIL Vicente. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GIL 2–1 SCB · SCB 0–1 GIL · SCB 2–0 GIL · GIL 0–0 SCB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 24 Aug

SC BRAGA

WWLWDL1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–3

GIL VICENTE

WDLLDW2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	8	+16	24
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	8	+4	14
6	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
7	GIL Vicente	7	+1	11
8	Alverca	8	+1	11
9	SC Braga	7	0	11
10	Estrela	8	−1	10
11	Maritimo	8	−5	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Famalicao	8	−1	7
14	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
15	Vitória SC	8	−5	5
16	Nacional	8	−9	4
17	Casa Pia	8	−14	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2