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Santa Clara v Benfica
Santa ClaraBenficaPrimeira Liga · MON 26 OCT · Estádio de São Miguel
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Benfica are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Santa Clara 18%, draw 22%, Benfica 60%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 46%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Santa Clara win18%Benfica win60%Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 18:45
RoundMatchday 9
VenueEstádio de São Miguel
Match timeline
All events
Santa ClaraMINBenficaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Santa Clara
Benfica
Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | +8 | 18 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Benfica a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara win | 18% | 11% | +7 |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | +2 |
| Benfica win | 60% | 69% | −9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 51% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 30% | −4 |
| Santa Clara or draw | 40% | 31% | +9 |
| Santa Clara clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
| Benfica clean sheet | 44% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 23 Aug
SANTA CLARA
BENFICA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | +16 | 24 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | +17 | 19 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 8 | +11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 8 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 8 | −1 | 11 |
| 10 |  Estrela | 8 | −1 | 10 |
| 11 |  Vitória SC | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | −7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Maritimo | 9 | −10 | 8 |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 8 | −1 | 7 |
| 15 |  Rio Ave | 8 | −9 | 7 |
| 16 |  Nacional | 8 | −9 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 8 | −14 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 8 | −8 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.