Rio Ave v Nacional prediction · Primeira Liga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional RIO AVE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rio Ave win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.520

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.464

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rio Ave win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rio Ave 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
1′KICK-OFF Rio Ave v Nacional
2′Little has changed for our model: Rio Ave 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
30′⚽ GOAL · 32' Rio Ave 0–0 Nacional
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Rio Ave 0–1 Nacional · N. Kader
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Rio Ave 1–1 Nacional · N. Kader
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Rio Ave 1–1 Nacional · Sebastian Clemensen
45′SECOND HALF Rio Ave 1–1 Nacional
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' João Tomé Baptista · Rio Ave
53′🟥 RED CARD · 54' João Tomé Baptista · Rio Ave
54′🟥 RED CARD · 54' João Tomé Baptista · Rio Ave
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Rio Ave 2–1 Nacional · Sebastian Clemensen
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Rio Ave 2–1 Nacional · Diogo Bezerra
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Rio Ave 2–2 Nacional · Diogo Bezerra
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Rio Ave 2–2 Nacional · N. Kader
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Rio Ave · On: Roland Galcik · Off: Sebastian Clemensen Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Rio Ave · On: Francisco Petrasso · Off: Miguel Patricío Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Nacional · On: Fernando Nava Ortega · Off: Daniel de Melo Araujo Junior Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Nacional · On: Miguel Baeza · Off: Chiheb Labidi Corrected
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional · N. Kader
71′⚽ GOAL · 72' Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional · Jalen Blesa
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional · Jalen Blesa
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Jalen Blesa · Rio Ave
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Rio Ave · On: Diogo Nascimento · Off: Diogo Bezerra Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Rio Ave · On: Simón García · Off: Malik Sellouki Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rio Ave · On: Tamble Ulisses Folgado Monteiro · Off: Jalen Blesa Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Nacional · On: Allen Obando · Off: Matchoi Djaló Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Nacional · On: Joel da Silva · Off: N. Kader Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Nacional · On: Stavros Gavriel · Off: Song Min-kyu Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Roland Galcik · Rio Ave
FTFULL TIME Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional
FTRio Ave 3–2 Nacional · Rio Ave win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Rio Ave win41%

Draw26%

Nacional win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

VenueEstádio dos Arcos

RefereeCarlos Macedo

Line-ups

Rio Ave

4-2-3-1

Nacional

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rio Ave

Nacional

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Nacional	7	−8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	−10	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Rio Ave

4-2-3-1

32 Vitor Hugo

20 J. Tome

5 A. Ntoi

39 Gustavo Mancha

17 M. Vrousai

79 M. Patricio

54 G. Liavas

80 S. Clemmensen

19 M. Sellouki

7 Diogo Bezerra

11 J. Blesa

Coach · Vasco Seabra

Substitutes

99 · E. van der Gouw

3 · S. Garcia

23 · F. Petrasso

60 · Caike

44 · T. Nikitscher

8 · Ryan Guilherme

90 · D. Nascimento

70 · A. Wenck

27 · T. Medina

77 · D. Spikic

30 · R. Galcik

9 · Tamble

Nacional

4-2-3-1

1 R. Marin

88 Deivison

33 C. Goncalves

38 Ze Vitor

21 W. Kokolo

15 C. Labidi

31 D. Dongmo

10 Daniel Junior

20 M. Djalo

12 Song Min-Kyu

29 A. Njoya

Coach · Alexandre Santos

Substitutes

13 · Joao Goncalves

14 · I. Fernandes

2 · D. I. de la Cruz

26 · J. Silva

8 · M. Baeza

7 · M. Jensen

9 · A. Obando

11 · S. Gavriel

17 · F. Nava

Our number · rio ave winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

41% The market45%

Us41%

~~Market~~45%

We make Rio Ave a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rio ave win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rio Ave win	41%	45%	−3
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Nacional win	33%	27%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	45%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−5
Rio Ave or draw	67%	73%	−5
Rio Ave clean sheet	32%	–	–
Nacional clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.2 10.2 5.6 2.1 1 11.8 12.2 7.2 2.8 2 7.4 8.4 4.8 3 3.3 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rio Ave down, Nacional across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,607 Primeira Liga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rio Ave at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nacional away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Rio Ave, 1.14 for Nacional. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NAC 4–0 RIO · RIO 1–1 NAC · NAC 3–3 RIO · RIO 2–1 NAC

Form · last six in Primeira Liga

RIO AVE

LWLLDL0–2 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–1

NACIONAL

WLLLLL2–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	8	+16	24
2	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
3	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
4	Benfica	7	+15	16
5	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
6	Arouca	7	+3	11
7	GIL Vicente	7	+1	11
8	SC Braga	7	0	11
9	Estrela	7	0	10
10	Alverca	7	−2	8
11	Maritimo	8	−5	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Famalicao	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	−3	5
15	Nacional	7	−8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	−10	4
17	Casa Pia	8	−14	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2