Rio Ave v Famalicao prediction · Primeira Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rio AveDrawFamalicao

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Famalicao 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Famalicao are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rio Ave 31%, draw 26%, Famalicao 43%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Rio Ave v FamalicaoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Rio Ave win31%

Draw26%

Famalicao win43%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEstádio dos Arcos

RefereeHelder Carvalho

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rio Ave

Famalicao

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Famalicao	8	−1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	−9	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · famalicao winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market46%

Us43%

~~Market~~46%

We make Famalicao a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rio Ave v Famalicao~~1.07 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~15 v 14

~~The market · Famalicao win~~46% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Famalicao win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rio Ave win	31%	26%	+5
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Famalicao win	43%	46%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	43%	46%	−3
Both teams to score	47%	51%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Rio Ave or draw	57%	54%	+3
Rio Ave clean sheet	27%	–	–
Famalicao clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.7 12.8 8.0 3.6 1 10.4 12.2 8.4 3.7 2 5.2 6.8 4.5 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rio Ave down, Famalicao across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,616 Primeira Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rio Ave at home: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Famalicao away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Rio Ave, 1.32 for Famalicao. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RIO 0–0 FAM · FAM 0–0 RIO · FAM 1–0 RIO · RIO 1–1 FAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug

RIO AVE

WLLDLW2–0 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 0–1 · 3–2

FAMALICAO

LDDDWL0–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	9	+17	27
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	9	+5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	+1	14
8	Alverca	9	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	−1	11
10	Estrela	9	−3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Maritimo	9	−10	8
14	Famalicao	8	−1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	−12	7
17	Nacional	8	−9	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2