Nacional v SC Braga prediction · Primeira Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NacionalDrawSC Braga

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · SC Braga 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC Braga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nacional 23%, draw 23%, SC Braga 54%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Nacional v SC BragaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Nacional win23%

Draw23%

SC Braga win54%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEstádio da Madeira

RefereeJose Bessa

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nacional

SC Braga

8Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Taça de Portugal

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	SC Braga	8	−1	11
17	Nacional	8	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sc braga winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

54% The market60%

Us54%

~~Market~~60%

We make SC Braga a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nacional v SC Braga~~1.02 – 1.71

~~Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 23 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 11~~17 v 9

~~The market · SC Braga win~~60% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SC Braga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nacional win	23%	16%	+7
Draw	23%	23%	0
SC Braga win	54%	60%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	50%	+1
Both teams to score	51%	49%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	30%	−1
Nacional or draw	46%	40%	+6
Nacional clean sheet	18%	–	–
SC Braga clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.1 11.7 9.5 5.4 2.4 1 7.3 10.8 9.5 5.4 2.4 2 3.5 5.8 4.9 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nacional down, SC Braga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,616 Primeira Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.38 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nacional at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). SC Braga away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Nacional, 1.71 for SC Braga. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~NAC 1–2 SCB · SCB 4–2 NAC · SCB 0–1 NAC · SCB 1–0 NAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 23 Aug

NACIONAL

LLLLLL0–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 2–3

SC BRAGA

WLWDLL2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	9	+17	27
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	9	+5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	+1	14
8	Alverca	9	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	−1	11
10	Estrela	9	−3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Maritimo	9	−10	8
14	Famalicao	8	−1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	−12	7
17	Nacional	8	−9	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2