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Moreirense v GIL Vicente

Moreirense

0–1Full time

GIL Vicente

Primeira Liga · FRI 9 OCT · Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Moreirense 0–1 GIL Vicente MOREIRENSE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Moreirense win~~36%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.622

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.509

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Moreirense win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Moreirense was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–29–35
2′KICK-OFF Moreirense v GIL Vicente
16′🟨 YELLOW · 17' GIL Vicente
45′SECOND HALF Moreirense 0–0 GIL Vicente
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Andreas Lausen · GIL Vicente
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Manuel Mendonça · Moreirense
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' GIL Vicente · On: Mohamed Kaba · Off: Andreas Lausen Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Moreirense · On: Rodrigo Alonso · Off: Nile John Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Moreirense · On: João Veloso · Off: Kiko Bondoso Corrected
69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Gil Pinto Martins · GIL Vicente
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Mohamed Kaba · GIL Vicente
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' GIL Vicente · On: Joelson Fernandes · Off: Gil Pinto Martins Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' GIL Vicente · On: Guilherme Gomes · Off: Hector Hernandez Corrected
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Gilberto Batista · Moreirense
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Moreirense · On: Landerson Costa Araújo · Off: Manuel Mendonça Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' GIL Vicente · On: Walace França · Off: Murilo Souza Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' GIL Vicente · On: Tidjany Chabrol Toure · Off: Santiago García González Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Moreirense · On: Yan Maranhão · Off: Leonardo Vonić Corrected
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga · Moreirense
89′⚽ GOAL · 90' Moreirense 0–0 GIL Vicente · Walace França
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Moreirense 0–1 GIL Vicente · Walace França
FTFULL TIME Moreirense 0–1 GIL Vicente
FTMoreirense 0–1 GIL Vicente · Moreirense win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Moreirense win36%

Draw28%

GIL Vicente win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:45

Venue · Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas

Referee · Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Moreirense

4-2-3-1

13 A. Ferreira

76 D. Pinto

66 G. Batista

26 Maracas

27 Kiko

23 N. John

65 Guilherme Liberato

10 K. Bondoso

7 M. Mendonca

19 T. Andrade

79 L. Vonic

Coach · Vasco Costa

Substitutes

1 · Aranha

12 · F. Sampaio

4 · Kevyn Monteiro

17 · A. Martinez

32 · Janderson

2 · L. Santos

21 · Rodri

28 · C. Songa

20 · J. Veloso

8 · M. Stjepanovic

99 · Yan Maranhao

11 · Landerson

GIL Vicente

4-2-3-1

30 Lucao

47 R. Esgaio

4 M. Elimbi

39 J. Buatu

45 D. Moreira

12 A. Lausen

86 D. Prioste

77 Murilo de Souza

10 S. Garcia

20 G. Pinto Martins

23 H. Hernandez

Coach · Luis Pinto

Substitutes

94 · Samuel Portugal

3 · A. Espigares

2 · J. Silva

32 · M. Fernandez

19 · Guilherme Gomes

82 · G. Maia

17 · S. Bermejo

99 · M. Kaba

27 · A. Moreira

11 · J. Fernandes

7 · T. Toure

9 · Walace Franca

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Moreirense

4-2-3-1

13 A. Ferreira

76 D. Pinto

66 G. Batista

26 Maracas

27 Kiko

23 N. John

65 Guilherme Liberato

10 K. Bondoso

7 M. Mendonca

19 T. Andrade

79 L. Vonic

Coach · Vasco Costa

Substitutes

1 · Aranha

12 · F. Sampaio

4 · Kevyn Monteiro

17 · A. Martinez

32 · Janderson

2 · L. Santos

21 · Rodri

28 · C. Songa

20 · J. Veloso

8 · M. Stjepanovic

99 · Yan Maranhao

11 · Landerson

GIL Vicente

4-2-3-1

30 Lucao

47 R. Esgaio

4 M. Elimbi

39 J. Buatu

45 D. Moreira

12 A. Lausen

86 D. Prioste

77 Murilo de Souza

10 S. Garcia

20 G. Pinto Martins

23 H. Hernandez

Coach · Luis Pinto

Substitutes

94 · Samuel Portugal

3 · A. Espigares

2 · J. Silva

32 · M. Fernandez

19 · Guilherme Gomes

82 · G. Maia

17 · S. Bermejo

99 · M. Kaba

27 · A. Moreira

11 · J. Fernandes

7 · T. Toure

9 · Walace Franca

Our number · moreirense winPublished 9 Oct 18:34

36% The market28%

Us36%

~~Market~~28%

We make Moreirense a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · moreirense win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 29% to 28% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moreirense win	36%	28%	+9
Draw	28%	31%	−3
GIL Vicente win	36%	42%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	40%	40%	0
Both teams to score	45%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	66%	65%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	21%	−1
Moreirense or draw	64%	58%	+6
Moreirense clean sheet	33%	–	–
GIL Vicente clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 10.1 12.1 6.6 2.5 1 12.2 12.8 7.4 2.8 2 6.7 7.5 4.2 3 2.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moreirense down, GIL Vicente across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,602 Primeira Liga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games this season, across 62 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.62 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Moreirense at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). GIL Vicente away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Moreirense, 1.13 for GIL Vicente. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MOR 1–2 GIL · GIL 2–0 MOR · GIL 0–1 MOR · MOR 3–2 GIL

Form · last six in Primeira Liga

MOREIRENSE

LWLLWD0–4 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 1–1

GIL VICENTE

WWDLLD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	7	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	0	11
8	Estrela	7	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	0	8
10	Alverca	7	−2	8
11	Maritimo	7	−4	8
12	Moreirense	7	−6	8
13	Famalicao	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	−3	5
15	Nacional	7	−8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	−10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	−13	4
18	Estoril	7	−7	2