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Maritimo v FC Porto

Maritimo

1–2Full time

FC Porto

Primeira Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Estádio do Marítimo

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Maritimo 1–2 FC Porto FC PORTO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Porto win~~65%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.182

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.113

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Porto win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Porto 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 14–21–65
8′Little has changed for our model: FC Porto 65% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 14–22–64
16′Gábor Szalai scores for Maritimo on 16′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 39–27–34
19′We said FC Porto at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–0 · 40–28–33
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Maritimo win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Porto win 31%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' FC Porto win: 65% at kick-off, 63% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' FC Porto win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Maritimo win 14%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' FC Porto win: 65% at kick-off, 31% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' FC Porto win: 65% at kick-off, 31% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Maritimo win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Porto win 31%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' FC Porto win: 65% at kick-off, 63% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' FC Porto win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Maritimo win 14%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' FC Porto win: 65% at kick-off, 31% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Maritimo win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Porto win 31%)
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' FC Porto win: 65% at kick-off, 63% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' FC Porto win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Maritimo win 14%)
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Alan Gonzalo Varela · FC Porto
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Maritimo 1–1 FC Porto · Gábor Szalai
41′⚽ GOAL · 42' Maritimo 1–1 FC Porto · Victor Froholdt
45′SECOND HALF Maritimo 1–1 FC Porto
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Porto · On: Pablo Rosario · Off: Alan Gonzalo Varela
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' FC Porto · On: Gabri Veiga · Off: Hwang In-Beom
54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' FC Porto · On: Borja Sainz · Off: William Gomes
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa · FC Porto
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Maritimo · On: Simo Bouzaidi · Off: Tomas Tavares
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Maritimo · On: Rodri Andrade · Off: Maxime Dominguez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Porto · On: Samuel Aghehowa · Off: André Silva
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Porto · On: Oskar Pietuszewski · Off: Eduardo Gabriel Aquino Cossa
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Maritimo · On: Maurice Boakye · Off: Martín Tejón
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Maritimo · On: Mons Rogeani Bassouamina · Off: Adrián Butzke
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Maritimo 1–2 FC Porto · Victor Froholdt
86′⚽ GOAL · 84' Maritimo 1–2 FC Porto · Oskar Pietuszewski
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Igor Julião · Maritimo
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Maritimo · On: Samuel Bamba · Off: Ibrahim Akitunde Alani
FTFULL TIME Maritimo 1–2 FC Porto
FTMaritimo 1–2 FC Porto · FC Porto win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Maritimo win15%

Draw20%

FC Porto win65%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:00

Venue · Estádio do Marítimo

Referee · Joao Goncalves

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Maritimo

4-2-3-1

30 F. Vieites

2 Igor Juliao

44 R. Correia

22 G. Szalai

23 P. Henrique

21 I. Alani

14 Raphael Guzzo

15 T. Tavares

8 M. Dominguez

10 M. Tejon

17 A. Butzke

Coach · Mitchell van der Gaag

Substitutes

13 · A. Pastor

1 · G. Tabuaco

3 · N. Ogbeta

4 · R. Fernandes

18 · V. Danilovic

6 · R. Andrade

66 · I. Ayuma

35 · B. Limbombe

27 · S. Bamba

11 · S. Bouzaidi

12 · M. Bassouamina

90 · M. Boakye

FC Porto

4-3-3

99 D. Costa

20 A. Costa

5 J. Bednarek

4 J. Kiwior

74 F. Moura

8 V. Froholdt

22 A. Varela

16 Hwang In-Beom

7 William Gomes

19 Andre Silva

11 Pepê

Coach · Francesco Farioli

Substitutes

14 · Claudio Ramos

6 · C. Smalling

52 · M. Fernandes

33 · Souza

42 · S. Fofana

13 · P. Rosario

10 · G. Veiga

9 · Samu

29 · S. Gimenez

17 · B. Sainz

77 · O. Pietuszewski

37 · Gabriel Mec

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Maritimo

4-2-3-1

30 F. Vieites

2 Igor Juliao

44 R. Correia

22 G. Szalai

23 P. Henrique

21 I. Alani

14 Raphael Guzzo

15 T. Tavares

8 M. Dominguez

10 M. Tejon

17 A. Butzke

Coach · Mitchell van der Gaag

Substitutes

13 · A. Pastor

1 · G. Tabuaco

3 · N. Ogbeta

4 · R. Fernandes

18 · V. Danilovic

6 · R. Andrade

66 · I. Ayuma

35 · B. Limbombe

27 · S. Bamba

11 · S. Bouzaidi

12 · M. Bassouamina

90 · M. Boakye

FC Porto

4-3-3

99 D. Costa

20 A. Costa

5 J. Bednarek

4 J. Kiwior

74 F. Moura

8 V. Froholdt

22 A. Varela

16 Hwang In-Beom

7 William Gomes

19 Andre Silva

11 Pepê

Coach · Francesco Farioli

Substitutes

14 · Claudio Ramos

6 · C. Smalling

52 · M. Fernandes

33 · Souza

42 · S. Fofana

13 · P. Rosario

10 · G. Veiga

9 · Samu

29 · S. Gimenez

17 · B. Sainz

77 · O. Pietuszewski

37 · Gabriel Mec

Our number · fc porto winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

65% The market73%

Us65%

~~Market~~73%

We make FC Porto a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc porto win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 71% to 73% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Maritimo win	15%	9%	+6
Draw	20%	18%	+2
FC Porto win	65%	73%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	52%	53%	−1
Both teams to score	46%	41%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Maritimo or draw	35%	27%	+8
Maritimo clean sheet	14%	–	–
FC Porto clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.7%

0123450 6.1 12.7 12.1 8.1 4.2 1 5.4 9.3 9.3 6.1 3.1 2 2.1 3.9 3.7 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Maritimo down, FC Porto across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,604 Primeira Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Maritimo at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). FC Porto away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.79 goals for Maritimo, 1.99 for FC Porto. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MAR 0–2 FCP · FCP 5–1 MAR · FCP 2–1 MAR · MAR 1–1 FCP

Form · last six in Primeira Liga

MARITIMO

WDLLLD2–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–1

FC PORTO

WWWWWW2–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	7	+15	21
2	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
3	Benfica	7	+15	16
4	Santa Clara	7	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	+3	11
6	GIL Vicente	7	+1	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	0	11
8	SC Braga	7	0	11
9	Estrela	7	0	10
10	Alverca	7	−2	8
11	Maritimo	7	−4	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Famalicao	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	−3	5
15	Nacional	7	−8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	−10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	−13	4
18	Estoril	7	−7	2