GIL Vicente v FC Porto prediction · Primeira Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:01

GIL Vicente 0–1 FC Porto FC PORTO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FC Porto win~~55%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.299

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.182

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Porto win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Porto 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 20–25–55
1′KICK-OFF GIL Vicente v FC Porto
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' FC Porto win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
41′We said FC Porto at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 18–38–43
45′SECOND HALF GIL Vicente 0–0 FC Porto
46′HALF-TIME GIL Vicente 0–0 FC Porto
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Porto · On: Hwang In-Beom · Off: Gabri Veiga
49′We said FC Porto at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 17–43–39
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was FC Porto win 42%)
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Pablo Rosario · FC Porto
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' FC Porto win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
58′We said FC Porto at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 16–50–34
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Porto · On: Samuel Aghehowa · Off: André Silva
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' GIL Vicente · On: Jose Carlos Natario Ferreira · Off: Andreas Lausen
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' GIL Vicente · On: Mohamed Kaba · Off: Walace França
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' GIL Vicente · On: Gil Pinto Martins · Off: Joelson Fernandes
63′We said FC Porto at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 2–13–86
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' GIL Vicente 0–1 FC Porto
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' FC Porto win: 55% at kick-off, 86% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' FC Porto win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 54%)
64′Borja Sainz scores for FC Porto on 63′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–13–86
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' FC Porto win: 55% at kick-off, 86% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Porto · On: Alan Gonzalo Varela · Off: Pablo Rosario
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Porto · On: Santiago Giménez · Off: Borja Sainz
74′We said FC Porto at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' GIL Vicente · On: Tidjany Chabrol Toure · Off: Diogo Prioste
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' GIL Vicente · On: Guilherme Gomes · Off: Santiago García González
83′We said FC Porto at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' FC Porto win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' GIL Vicente
85′GIL Vicente are down to ten from 84′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 0–4–96
97′0–1 at the end. Our 55% on FC Porto comes in. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME GIL Vicente 0–1 FC Porto
FTGIL Vicente 0–1 FC Porto · FC Porto win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Porto are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: GIL Vicente 20%, draw 24%, FC Porto 55%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on GIL Vicente v FC PortoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

GIL Vicente win20%

Draw24%

FC Porto win55%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEstadio Cidade de Barcelos

RefereeLuis Miguel Branco Godinho

Line-ups

GIL Vicente

4-2-3-1

FC Porto

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

GIL Vicente

FC Porto

5Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Primeira Liga

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

GIL Vicente

4-2-3-1

30 Lucão

47 Ricardo Esgaio

4 M. Elimbi Gilbert

39 Jonathan Buatu

45 David Moreira

12 A. Lausen

86 Diogo Ferreira Prioste

77 Murilo

10 Santi García

11 Joelson Fernandes

9 Walace

Coach · Luís Pinto

Substitutes

2 · José Silva

94 · Samuel

20 · Gil Pinto Martins

1 · A. Picornell

27 · A. Moreira

82 · Gonçalo Maia Pereira

99 · M. Kaba

19 · Guilherme

32 · M. Fernández

3 · Espigares

7 · T. Touré

6 · Zé Carlos

FC Porto

4-3-3

99 Diogo Costa

20 Alberto Baio

5 J. Bednarek

4 J. Kiwior

12 Z. Sanusi

8 Victor Mow Froholdt

13 P. Rosario

10 Gabri Veiga

11 Pepê Aquino

19 André Silva

17 Borja Sainz

Coach · F. Farioli

Substitutes

14 · Cláudio Ramos

22 · A. Varela

52 · Martim Fernandes

42 · S. Fofana

29 · S. Giménez

16 · Hwang In-Beom

74 · Francisco Moura

18 · N. Pérez

9 · Samu

6 · C. Smalling

37 · Gabriel Mec

24 · Andorinha

Our number · fc porto winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

55% The market66%

Us55%

~~Market~~66%

We make FC Porto a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · GIL Vicente v FC Porto~~0.82 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 24~~6 v 1

~~The market · FC Porto win~~66% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Porto win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GIL Vicente win	20%	13%	+7
Draw	24%	21%	+3
FC Porto win	55%	66%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	42%	50%	−8
Both teams to score	43%	45%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	73%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	22%	29%	−7
GIL Vicente or draw	45%	34%	+11
GIL Vicente clean sheet	21%	–	–
FC Porto clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.0%

0123450 8.9 15.0 11.3 5.9 2.4 1 8.1 11.2 9.0 4.7 2 3.1 4.8 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GIL Vicente down, FC Porto across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,613 Primeira Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GIL Vicente at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC Porto away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for GIL Vicente, 1.56 for FC Porto. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCP 3–0 GIL · GIL 0–2 FCP · GIL 3–1 FCP · FCP 3–0 GIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 23 Aug

GIL VICENTE

DLLDWW0–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

FC PORTO

WWWWWW2–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	8	+16	24
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	8	+4	14
6	GIL Vicente	8	+2	14
7	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
8	Alverca	8	+1	11
9	SC Braga	8	−1	11
10	Estrela	8	−1	10
11	Vitória SC	9	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Maritimo	9	−10	8
14	Famalicao	8	−1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
16	Nacional	8	−9	4
17	Casa Pia	8	−14	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2