FC Porto v Estoril prediction · Primeira Liga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC PortoDrawEstoril

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Porto 74%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Porto are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Porto 74%, draw 16%, Estoril 10%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on FC Porto v EstorilBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

FC Porto win74%

Draw16%

Estoril win10%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Porto

Estoril

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · Primeira Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · Taça de Portugal

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc porto winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

74% The market–

Us74%

We make FC Porto a 74% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Porto v Estoril~~2.38 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 27 v 2~~1 v 18

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Porto win	74%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Estoril win	10%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
FC Porto or draw	90%	–	–
FC Porto clean sheet	49%	–	–
Estoril clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.6%

0123450 4.3 3.7 1 11.1 7.4 2.9 2 12.6 9.1 3.3 3 9.9 7.1 2.6 4 6.0 4.2 5 2.9 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Porto down, Estoril across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,616 Primeira Liga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primeira Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Porto at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Estoril away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.38 goals for FC Porto, 0.73 for Estoril. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EST 1–3 FCP · FCP 1–0 EST · EST 1–2 FCP · FCP 4–0 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primeira Liga this season · since 22 Aug

FC PORTO

WWWWWW3–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

ESTORIL

LLDLLL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Porto	9	+17	27
2	Benfica	8	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	+8	18
5	Arouca	9	+5	17
6	Academico Viseu	8	+1	14
7	GIL Vicente	9	+1	14
8	Alverca	9	0	11
9	SC Braga	8	−1	11
10	Estrela	9	−3	10
11	Vitória SC	9	0	8
12	Moreirense	8	−7	8
13	Maritimo	9	−10	8
14	Famalicao	8	−1	7
15	Rio Ave	8	−9	7
16	Casa Pia	9	−12	7
17	Nacional	8	−9	4
18	Estoril	8	−8	2